Wang Hetang, Li Jia, Wang Deming, Huang Zonghou
Key Laboratory of Coal Methane and Fire Control (China University of Mining and Technology), Ministry of Education, Xuzhou, China.
School of Safety Engineering, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2017 Aug 9;12(8):e0182453. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182453. eCollection 2017.
Coal dust explosions (CDE) are one of the main threats to the occupational safety of coal miners. Aiming to identify and assess the risk of CDE, this paper proposes a novel method of fuzzy fault tree analysis combined with the Visual Basic (VB) program. In this methodology, various potential causes of the CDE are identified and a CDE fault tree is constructed. To overcome drawbacks from the lack of exact probability data for the basic events, fuzzy set theory is employed and the probability data of each basic event is treated as intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. In addition, a new approach for calculating the weighting of each expert is also introduced in this paper to reduce the error during the expert elicitation process. Specifically, an in-depth quantitative analysis of the fuzzy fault tree, such as the importance measure of the basic events and the cut sets, and the CDE occurrence probability is given to assess the explosion risk and acquire more details of the CDE. The VB program is applied to simplify the analysis process. A case study and analysis is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method, and some suggestions are given to take preventive measures in advance and avoid CDE accidents.
煤尘爆炸（CDE）是煤矿工人职业安全的主要威胁之一。为了识别和评估煤尘爆炸风险，本文提出了一种结合Visual Basic（VB）程序的新型模糊故障树分析方法。在该方法中，识别了煤尘爆炸的各种潜在原因并构建了煤尘爆炸故障树。为克服基本事件缺乏精确概率数据的缺点，采用模糊集理论，将每个基本事件的概率数据视为直觉梯形模糊数。此外，本文还引入了一种计算每位专家权重的新方法，以减少专家意见征集过程中的误差。具体而言，对模糊故障树进行了深入的定量分析，如基本事件和割集的重要度测度以及煤尘爆炸发生概率，以评估爆炸风险并获取煤尘爆炸的更多详细信息。应用VB程序简化了分析过程。提供了一个案例研究与分析，以说明该方法的有效性，并给出了一些提前采取预防措施以避免煤尘爆炸事故的建议。
