Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal.
Department of Industrial Engineering, Eastern Mediterranean University, Turkey.
Int J Occup Saf Ergon. 2020 Jun;26(2):319-335. doi: 10.1080/10803548.2018.1454636. Epub 2018 May 9.
This study aimed at establishing fault tree analysis (FTA) using expert opinion to compute the probability of an event. To find the probability of the top event (TE), all probabilities of the basic events (BEs) should be available when the FTA is drawn. In this case, employing expert judgment can be used as an alternative to failure data in an awkward situation. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process as a standard technique is used to give a specific weight to each expert, and fuzzy set theory is engaged for aggregating expert opinion. In this regard, the probability of BEs will be computed and, consequently, the probability of the TE obtained using Boolean algebra. Additionally, to reduce the probability of the TE in terms of three parameters (safety consequences, cost and benefit), the importance measurement technique and modified TOPSIS was employed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with a real-life case study.
本研究旨在使用专家意见建立故障树分析 (FTA) 来计算事件的概率。要找到顶事件 (TE) 的概率，当绘制 FTA 时，应该获得所有基本事件 (BE) 的概率。在这种情况下，在棘手的情况下，采用专家判断可以替代故障数据。模糊层次分析法作为一种标准技术，用于为每个专家赋予特定权重，模糊集理论用于聚合专家意见。在这方面，将计算 BE 的概率，然后使用布尔代数计算 TE 的概率。此外，为了降低 TE 在三个参数（安全后果、成本和收益）方面的概率，采用了重要性测量技术和改进的 TOPSIS。通过一个实际案例研究证明了所提出方法的有效性。
