Foster Tammy E, Stolen Eric D, Hall Carlton R, Schaub Ronald, Duncan Brean W, Hunt Danny K, Drese John H
Ecological Program, Integrated Mission Support Services, Kennedy Space Center, Florida, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2017 Aug 10;12(8):e0182605. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0182605. eCollection 2017.
Society needs information about how vegetation communities in coastal regions will be impacted by hydrologic changes associated with climate change, particularly sea level rise. Due to anthropogenic influences which have significantly decreased natural coastal vegetation communities, it is important for us to understand how remaining natural communities will respond to sea level rise. The Cape Canaveral Barrier Island complex (CCBIC) on the east central coast of Florida is within one of the most biologically diverse estuarine systems in North America and has the largest number of threatened and endangered species on federal property in the contiguous United States. The high level of biodiversity is susceptible to sea level rise. Our objective was to model how vegetation communities along a gradient ranging from hydric to upland xeric on CCBIC will respond to three sea level rise scenarios (0.2 m, 0.4 m, and 1.2 m). We used a probabilistic model of the current relationship between elevation and vegetation community to determine the impact sea level rise would have on these communities. Our model correctly predicted the current proportions of vegetation communities on CCBIC based on elevation. Under all sea level rise scenarios the model predicted decreases in mesic and xeric communities, with the greatest losses occurring in the most xeric communities. Increases in total area of salt marsh were predicted with a 0.2 and 0.4 m rise in sea level. With a 1.2 m rise in sea level approximately half of CCBIC's land area was predicted to transition to open water. On the remaining land, the proportions of most of the vegetation communities were predicted to remain similar to that of current proportions, but there was a decrease in proportion of the most xeric community (oak scrub) and an increase in the most hydric community (salt marsh). Our approach provides a first approximation of the impacts of sea level rise on terrestrial vegetation communities, including important xeric upland communities, as a foundation for management decisions and future modeling.
社会需要了解沿海地区的植被群落将如何受到与气候变化相关的水文变化的影响，特别是海平面上升的影响。由于人为影响已使天然沿海植被群落大幅减少，因此了解剩余的天然群落将如何应对海平面上升对我们来说很重要。佛罗里达州中东部海岸的卡纳维拉尔角屏障岛群（CCBIC）位于北美生物多样性最丰富的河口系统之一内，并且在毗连的美国联邦土地上拥有数量最多的濒危物种。高度的生物多样性易受海平面上升的影响。我们的目标是模拟CCBIC上从水生到旱生高地的梯度上的植被群落将如何应对三种海平面上升情景（0.2米、0.4米和1.2米）。我们使用了当前海拔与植被群落之间关系的概率模型来确定海平面上升对这些群落的影响。我们的模型基于海拔正确预测了CCBIC上植被群落的当前比例。在所有海平面上升情景下，该模型预测中生和旱生群落会减少，其中最旱生的群落损失最大。预计海平面上升0.2米和0.4米时盐沼总面积会增加。海平面上升1.2米时，预计CCBIC约一半的陆地面积将转变为开阔水域。在其余陆地上，预计大多数植被群落的比例将与当前比例相似，但最旱生群落（橡木灌丛）的比例会下降，最水生群落（盐沼）的比例会增加。我们的方法提供了海平面上升对陆地植被群落（包括重要的旱生高地群落）影响的初步近似结果，作为管理决策和未来建模的基础。
