Samari Goleen
Population Research Center, University of Texas at Austin.
Popul Res Policy Rev. 2017 Aug;36(4):561-582. doi: 10.1007/s11113-017-9427-3. Epub 2017 Feb 25.
Fertility reached a two decade high of 3.5 births per woman in Egypt in 2014. Lower status of women is associated with higher fertility. Majority of the studies on women's agency and fertility rely on individual level cross-sectional data from South Asia, which limits the understanding of variation among communities and the direction of the relationship between women's agency and fertility in other global contexts. This study examines the relationship between women's agency and fertility longitudinally and among communities in the most populous country in the Middle East - Egypt. For 3,795 ever married women 15 to 49 years old in the 2006 and 2012 Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey, multilevel models are estimated for having given birth and number of births between 2006 and 2012. Contrary to expectation, women with more agency with greater participation in household decision-making and mobility are, in fact, likely to have had a birth and have a total number of births. Only women with more egalitarian attitudes are associated with fewer births. Community membership explains 5% of the variation in fertility. Since social norms in Egypt favor a higher number of births and labor market participation among women is low, women with agency could be fulfilling social expectations of having children and choosing to have more children.
2014年,埃及的生育率达到了两年来的最高水平,每名妇女平均生育3.5个孩子。妇女地位较低与较高的生育率相关。大多数关于妇女能动性与生育率的研究依赖于来自南亚的个体层面横截面数据,这限制了对不同社区间差异的理解,以及在其他全球背景下妇女能动性与生育率之间关系的方向。本研究纵向考察了中东人口最多的国家——埃及不同社区中妇女能动性与生育率之间的关系。针对2006年和2012年埃及劳动力市场面板调查中3795名年龄在15至49岁之间的已婚妇女,我们估计了2006年至2012年间生育情况和生育数量的多层次模型。与预期相反,实际上,在家庭决策和流动中参与度更高、能动性更强的妇女更有可能生育且生育总数更多。只有态度更平等的妇女与较少的生育数量相关。社区成员身份解释了生育率变化的5%。由于埃及的社会规范倾向于较高的生育率,且妇女的劳动力市场参与率较低,有能动性的妇女可能正在满足生育子女的社会期望,并选择生育更多子女。