Samari Goleen
Department of Population & Family Health, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, USA.
SSM Popul Health. 2019 Nov 20;9:100488. doi: 10.1016/j.ssmph.2019.100488. eCollection 2019 Dec.
In 2006, fertility in Egypt reached a two-decade low of 3 births per woman; however, by 2008, the demographic transition reversed, and fertility has remained higher at 3.5 births per woman. Low educational achievement is linked to high fertility. Education is also important in the process of women's empowerment, suggesting that educational achievement lowers fertility through gains in women's agency. However, no studies test this pathway, and evidence on the relationship between education and fertility in Middle Eastern settings is limited. Using longitudinal data from the 2006 and 2012 Egyptian Labor Market Panel Survey (ELMPS), a nationally representative sample of households in Egypt, for 4336 married women aged 15-49 years, this study estimates several linear and mediation regression models of number of births and considers whether women's empowerment explains the relationship between education and number of births. Women's empowerment is operationalized through three measures of instrumental agency: individual household decision making, joint household decision making, and mobility and one measure of intrinsic agency-gender beliefs and attitudes. Higher educational achievement has significant adjusted associations with lower fertility. However, measures of women's agency have mixed mediation associations for education and fertility. Greater individual household decision making and belief in egalitarian gender norms partially mediate the relationship between education and fertility, while greater joint decision making suppresses the relationship. Contrary to expectation, women who have more instrumental agency through more individual and joint household decisions have higher fertility than those who make fewer household decisions. However, women who demonstrate intrinsic agency through greater egalitarian gender beliefs have lower fertility than those who believe in inequitable gender norms. Empowerment programs should focus on improvements in women's education and changing women's intrinsic agency in Egypt, to lower fertility.
2006年，埃及的生育率降至20年来的最低点，每名妇女平均生育3个孩子；然而，到2008年，人口转变出现逆转，生育率一直较高，每名妇女平均生育3.5个孩子。低教育成就与高生育率相关。教育在妇女赋权过程中也很重要，这表明教育成就通过增强妇女的自主权来降低生育率。然而，没有研究检验这一途径，而且关于中东地区教育与生育率之间关系的证据有限。本研究使用2006年和2012年埃及劳动力市场面板调查（ELMPS）的纵向数据，这是一个具有全国代表性的埃及家庭样本，涵盖4336名年龄在15至49岁的已婚妇女，估计了几个关于生育数量的线性和中介回归模型，并考虑妇女赋权是否能解释教育与生育数量之间的关系。妇女赋权通过工具性自主权的三项衡量标准来实施：个人家庭决策、联合家庭决策以及流动性，以及一项内在自主权的衡量标准——性别观念和态度。较高的教育成就与较低的生育率有显著的调整关联。然而，妇女自主权的衡量标准在教育与生育率之间的中介关联方面好坏参半。更大的个人家庭决策和平等性别规范信念部分中介了教育与生育率之间的关系，而更大的联合决策则抑制了这种关系。与预期相反，通过更多个人和联合家庭决策拥有更多工具性自主权的妇女比做出较少家庭决策的妇女生育率更高。然而，通过更平等的性别观念表现出内在自主权的妇女比那些相信不平等性别规范的妇女生育率更低。赋权项目应侧重于提高埃及妇女的教育水平和改变妇女的内在自主权，以降低生育率。
