Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095;
Independent Scholar, Easton, PA 18040.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Sep 5;114(36):E7432-E7440. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1708505114. Epub 2017 Aug 21.
Migration has always involved stress and risk. More risk-averse households are less likely to move, while less risk-averse households will seek out opportunities and migrate. We investigate how the theoretical contributions of prospect theory, and specifically the endowment effect, can provide new understanding about decisions whether to migrate or not. We test the hypothesis that risk aversion extends the length of stay in the dwelling and, by extension, in the local labor and housing markets. How long people remain in place is a function, we hypothesize, of their independently self-assessed propensity to take risks, after controlling for a range of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. We use the theoretical insights of prospect theory and the endowment effect (the notion of the "use value" differing from the "exchange value") to explain the likelihood of staying after controlling for life-course events. The results confirm the explanatory power of self-assessed risk in the decision to migrate or stay and, equally important, confirm the role of the endowment effect.
迁移一直伴随着压力和风险。风险规避型家庭不太可能迁移，而风险偏好型家庭则会寻找机会并迁移。我们研究了前景理论的理论贡献，特别是禀赋效应，如何为是否迁移的决策提供新的理解。我们检验了这样一个假设，即风险规避会延长在住所的停留时间，并进而延长在当地劳动力和住房市场的停留时间。我们假设，人们停留的时间长短是他们独立自我评估的风险承受能力的函数，在控制了一系列人口统计学和社会经济特征之后。我们利用前景理论和禀赋效应（“使用价值”与“交换价值”的概念不同）的理论见解来解释在控制了人生事件之后的留居可能性。结果证实了自我评估风险在迁移或留居决策中的解释力，同样重要的是，还证实了禀赋效应的作用。
