Cooke Thomas J, Wright Richard, Ellis Mark
Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Austin Building, 215 Glenbrook Rd #422, Storrs, CT 06269.
Department of Geography, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755-3571 USA.
Geogr Rev. 2018;108(4):503-522. doi: 10.1111/gere.12310. Epub 2019 Nov 1.
Wilbur Zelinsky's 1971 paper in Geographical Review entitled the "Hypothesis of the Mobility Transition" was both forward-looking and offered innovative ideas regarding human geographic mobility. One of the most interesting aspects of the paper was a set of predictions for mobility in a "future superadvanced society". Many of these predictions have now come to pass, including a general decline in international and internal migration and residential change, the increasing regulation of migration - especially internally, and the possibility that the widespread adoption of information and communication technologies has impacted human geographic mobility. Hence, this essay looks at the mobility transition not as an obsolete frame of reference but as a prescient, pliable, and adaptable framework which not only informs the study of human geographic mobility today but also, perhaps, even into the future.
威尔伯·泽林斯基1971年发表在《地理评论》上的题为《迁移转变假说》的论文既具有前瞻性，又提出了关于人类地理迁移的创新观点。该论文最有趣的一个方面是对“未来超级先进社会”迁移情况的一系列预测。如今，这些预测中的许多都已成为现实，包括国际和国内迁移以及居住变化普遍减少、对迁移的管控日益加强——尤其是国内迁移，以及信息通信技术的广泛应用可能已经对人类地理迁移产生了影响。因此，本文并不将迁移转变视为一个过时的参考框架，而是将其视为一个有先见之明、灵活且适应性强的框架，它不仅为当今人类地理迁移的研究提供信息，或许甚至还能为未来的研究提供信息。
