Center for Tropical Research, Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, University of California, Los Angeles, 619 Charles E. Young Dr. East, Los Angeles, CA 90095, United States.
Department of Biology, Drexel University, 3245 Chestnut Street, PISB 503, Philadelphia, PA 19104, United States.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Jan 1;610-611:503-510. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.041. Epub 2017 Aug 19.
Although a number of recent studies suggest that climate associated shifts in agriculture are affecting social and economic systems, there have been relatively few studies of these effects in Africa. Such studies would be particularly useful in Central Africa, where the impacts of climate warming are predicted to be high but coincide with an area with low adaptive capacity. Focusing on plantain (Musa paradisiaca), we assess whether recent climate change has led to reduced yields. Analysis of annual temperature between 1950 and 2013 indicated a 0.8°C temperature increase over this 63-year period - a trend that is also observed in monthly temperatures in the last twenty years. From 1991 to 2011, there was a 43% decrease in plantain productivity in Central Africa, which was explained by shifts in temperature (R=0.68). This decline may have reduced rural household wealth and decreased parental investment in education. Over the past two decades, there was a six month decrease in the duration of school attendance, and the decline was tightly linked to plantain yield (R=0.82). By 2080, mean annual temperature is expected to increase at least 2°C in Central Africa, and our models predict a concomitant decrease of 39% in plantain yields and 51% in education outcomes, relative to the 1991 baseline. These predictions should be seen as a call-to-action for policy interventions such as farmer training programs to enhance the adaptive capacity of food production systems to mitigate impacts on rural income and education.
尽管最近有多项研究表明，与气候相关的农业变化正在影响社会和经济系统，但在非洲，对这些影响的研究相对较少。在气候变暖影响预计很高的中非地区，此类研究将特别有用，因为该地区的适应能力较低。我们以大蕉（Musa paradisiaca）为例，评估最近的气候变化是否导致产量下降。对 1950 年至 2013 年期间的年气温进行分析表明，在这 63 年期间，气温上升了 0.8°C——这一趋势在过去 20 年的月气温中也有所观察。1991 年至 2011 年，中非地区的大蕉产量下降了 43%，这主要是由于温度的变化（R=0.68）。这一下降可能减少了农村家庭的财富，并减少了父母对教育的投资。在过去二十年中，上学时间减少了六个月，而这一下降与大蕉产量密切相关（R=0.82）。到 2080 年，中非地区的年平均气温预计至少会上升 2°C，我们的模型预测，与 1991 年的基准相比，大蕉产量将下降 39%，教育成果将下降 51%。这些预测应该被视为采取政策干预措施的呼吁，例如农民培训计划，以增强粮食生产系统的适应能力，减轻对农村收入和教育的影响。
