Department of Civil Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 5 Heroon Polytechniou, Zografou, 157 80 Athens, Greece.
Environmental Technology, SINTEF Ocean, 7465 Trondheim, Norway.
Environ Pollut. 2017 Dec;231(Pt 1):578-588. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2017.08.076. Epub 2017 Aug 29.
A methodology is presented and applied to assess the oil contamination probability in the Gulf of Patras and the environmental impacts on the environmentally sensitive area of Mesolongi - Aitoliko coastal lagoons, and to examine the effectiveness of response systems. The procedure consists of the following steps: (1) Determination of the computational domain and the main areas of interest, (2) determination of the drilling sites and oil release characteristics, (3) selection of the simulation periods and collection of environmental data, (4) identification of the species of interest and their characteristics, (5) performance of stochastic calculations and oil contamination probability analysis, (6) determination of the worst-cases, (7) determination of the characteristics of response systems, (8) performance of deterministic calculations, and (9) assessment of the impact of oil spill in the areas of interest. Stochastic calculations that were performed for three typical seasonal weather variations of the year 2015, three oil release sites and specific oil characteristics, showed that there is a considerable probability of oil pollution that reaches 30% in the Mesolongi - Aitoliko lagoons. Based on a simplified approach regarding the characteristic of the sensitive birds and fish in the lagoons, deterministic calculations showed that 78-90% of the bird population and 2-4% of the fish population are expected to be contaminated in the case of an oil spill without any intervention. The use of dispersants reduced the amount of stranded oil by approximately 16-21% and the contaminated bird population of the lagoons to approximately 70%; however, the affected fish population increased to 6-8.5% due to the higher oil concentration in the water column. Mechanical recovery with skimmers "cleaned" almost 10% of the released oil quantity, but it did not have any noticeable effect on the stranded oil and the impacted bird and fish populations.
提出了一种方法，并将其应用于评估帕特雷湾的石油污染概率以及对梅索隆吉-艾托利科沿海泻湖环境敏感区的环境影响，并研究了应对系统的有效性。该程序包括以下步骤：（1）确定计算域和主要关注区域，（2）确定钻井地点和石油释放特征，（3）选择模拟时段和收集环境数据，（4）确定感兴趣的物种及其特征，（5）进行随机计算和石油污染概率分析，（6）确定最坏情况，（7）确定应对系统的特征，（8）进行确定性计算，以及（9）评估溢油对感兴趣区域的影响。针对 2015 年三种典型季节性天气变化、三个石油释放地点和特定石油特征进行的随机计算表明，梅索隆吉-艾托利科泻湖存在相当大的石油污染概率，达到 30%。基于对泻湖中敏感鸟类和鱼类特征的简化方法，确定性计算表明，在没有任何干预的情况下，预计泻湖中 78-90%的鸟类种群和 2-4%的鱼类种群将受到污染。使用分散剂可减少约 16-21%的搁浅石油量和泻湖中受污染的鸟类种群，约 70%；然而，由于水柱中油浓度较高，受影响的鱼类种群增加到 6-8.5%。撇油器的机械回收“清除”了约 10%的释放石油量，但对搁浅石油和受影响的鸟类和鱼类种群没有任何明显影响。
