The Water Institute, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill , Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-741, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2017 Oct 3;51(19):11336-11345. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.7b03287. Epub 2017 Sep 21.
Sufficient, safe, and continuously available water services are important for human development and health yet many water systems in low- and middle-income countries are nonfunctional. Monitoring data were analyzed using regression and Bayesian networks (BNs) to explore factors influencing the functionality of 82 503 water systems in Nigeria and Tanzania. Functionality varied by system type. In Tanzania, Nira handpumps were more functional than Afridev and India Mark II handpumps. Higher functionality was associated with fee collection in Nigeria. In Tanzania, functionality was higher if fees were collected monthly rather than in response to system breakdown. Systems in Nigeria were more likely to be functional if they were used for both human and livestock consumption. In Tanzania, systems managed by private operators were more functional than community-managed systems. The BNs found strong dependencies between functionality and system type and administrative unit (e.g., district). The BNs predicted functionality increased from 68% to 89% in Nigeria and from 53% to 68% in Tanzania when best observed conditions were in place. Improvements to water system monitoring and analysis of monitoring data with different modeling techniques may be useful for identifying water service improvement opportunities and informing evidence-based decision-making for better management, policy, programming, and practice.
充足、安全且持续供应的水服务对人类发展和健康至关重要，但许多中低收入国家的水系统无法正常运行。本研究使用回归和贝叶斯网络（BN）分析监测数据，以探讨影响尼日利亚和坦桑尼亚 82503 个水系统功能的因素。系统类型的不同影响了功能。在坦桑尼亚，Nira 手动泵比 Afridev 和印度 Mark II 手动泵更具功能性。在尼日利亚，收取水费与更高的功能相关。在坦桑尼亚，如果按月收取水费而不是在系统出现故障时收取，那么功能会更高。如果系统既用于人类饮用，也用于牲畜饮用，那么在尼日利亚，系统更有可能具有功能性。在坦桑尼亚，由私营运营商管理的系统比社区管理的系统更具功能性。BN 发现功能与系统类型和行政单位（例如区）之间存在很强的依赖性。当最佳观测条件到位时，BN 预测尼日利亚的功能从 68%提高到 89%，坦桑尼亚从 53%提高到 68%。改进水系统监测和使用不同建模技术分析监测数据可能有助于确定改善供水服务的机会，并为更好的管理、政策、规划和实践提供循证决策依据。
