Lim Cheng Ling, Prescott Graham W, De Alban Jose Don T, Ziegler Alan D, Webb Edward L
Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 117543, Singapore.
Department of Geography, National University of Singapore, Singapore, 117570, Singapore.
Conserv Biol. 2017 Dec;31(6):1362-1372. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12984. Epub 2017 Oct 14.
Political transitions often trigger substantial environmental changes. In particular, deforestation can result from the complex interplay among the components of a system-actors, institutions, and existing policies-adapting to new opportunities. A dynamic conceptual map of system components is particularly useful for systems in which multiple actors, each with different worldviews and motivations, may be simultaneously trying to alter different facets of the system, unaware of the impacts on other components. In Myanmar, a global biodiversity hotspot with the largest forest area in mainland Southeast Asia, ongoing political and economic reforms are likely to change the dynamics of deforestation drivers. A fundamental conceptual map of these dynamics is therefore a prerequisite for interventions to reduce deforestation. We used a system-dynamics approach and causal-network analysis to determine the proximate causes and underlying drivers of forest loss and degradation in Myanmar from 1995 to 2016 and to articulate the linkages among them. Proximate causes included infrastructure development, timber extraction, and agricultural expansion. These were stimulated primarily by formal agricultural, logging, mining, and hydropower concessions and economic investment and social issues relating to civil war and land tenure. Reform of land laws, the link between natural resource extraction and civil war, and the allocation of agricultural concessions will influence the extent of future forest loss and degradation in Myanmar. The causal-network analysis identified priority areas for policy interventions, for example, creating a public registry of land-concession holders to deter corruption in concession allocation. We recommend application of this analytical approach to other countries, particularly those undergoing political transition, to inform policy interventions to reduce forest loss and degradation.
政治转型往往会引发重大的环境变化。特别是，森林砍伐可能源于一个系统的各个组成部分——行为体、机构和现有政策——为适应新机遇而产生的复杂相互作用。对于存在多个行为体、每个行为体都有不同世界观和动机、可能同时试图改变系统不同方面且未意识到对其他组成部分影响的系统而言，系统组成部分的动态概念图尤为有用。在缅甸这片拥有东南亚大陆最大森林面积的全球生物多样性热点地区，正在进行的政治和经济改革很可能改变森林砍伐驱动因素的动态变化。因此，这些动态变化的基本概念图是减少森林砍伐干预措施的先决条件。我们采用系统动力学方法和因果网络分析来确定1995年至2016年缅甸森林损失和退化的直接原因及潜在驱动因素，并阐明它们之间的联系。直接原因包括基础设施建设、木材采伐和农业扩张。这些主要受到正式的农业、伐木、采矿和水电特许权以及与内战和土地保有权相关的经济投资和社会问题的刺激。土地法改革、自然资源开采与内战之间的联系以及农业特许权的分配将影响缅甸未来森林损失和退化的程度。因果网络分析确定了政策干预的优先领域，例如，创建土地特许权持有人公共登记册以遏制特许权分配中的腐败现象。我们建议将这种分析方法应用于其他国家，特别是那些正在经历政治转型的国家，以为减少森林损失和退化的政策干预提供参考。
