Seidl Rupert, Thom Dominik, Kautz Markus, Martin-Benito Dario, Peltoniemi Mikko, Vacchiano Giorgio, Wild Jan, Ascoli Davide, Petr Michal, Honkaniemi Juha, Lexer Manfred J, Trotsiuk Volodymyr, Mairota Paola, Svoboda Miroslav, Fabrika Marek, Nagel Thomas A, Reyer Christopher P O
Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU) Vienna, Peter Jordan Straße 82, 1190 Wien, Austria.
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
Nat Clim Chang. 2017 Jun;7:395-402. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3303. Epub 2017 May 31.
Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.
森林干扰对气候很敏感。然而，我们对干扰动态如何响应气候变化的理解仍不完整，尤其是在大规模模式、相互作用效应和抑制反馈方面。在此，我们对气候变化对重要的非生物干扰因素（火灾、干旱、风、雪和冰）和生物干扰因素（昆虫和病原体）的影响进行了全球综合分析。气候变暖和变干的条件尤其会助长火灾、干旱和昆虫干扰，而气候变暖和变湿则会增加风灾和病原体造成的干扰。干扰因素之间广泛的相互作用可能会加剧干扰，而诸如植被变化等间接气候效应则可能会抑制长期干扰对气候的敏感性。干扰的未来变化在针叶林和北方生物群落中可能最为显著。我们得出结论，生态系统和社会都应为未来森林日益受到干扰的状况做好准备。
