Moscow, ID, USA.
Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.
Glob Chang Biol. 2018 Feb;24(2):858-868. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13883. Epub 2017 Sep 25.
Population responses to climate were assessed using 3-7 years height growth data gathered for 266 populations growing in 12 common gardens established in the 1980s as part of five disparate studies of Pinus contorta var. latifolia. Responses are interpreted according to three concepts: the ecological optimum, the climate where a population is competitively exclusive and in which, therefore, it occurs naturally; the physiological optimum, the climate where a population grows best but is most often competitively excluded; and growth potential, the innate capacity for growth at the physiological optimum. Statistical analyses identified winter cold, measured by the square root of negative degree-days calculated from the daily minimum temperature (MINDD0 ), as the climatic effect most closely related to population growth potential; the colder the winter inhabited by a population, the lower its growth potential, a relationship presumably molded by natural selection. By splitting the data into groups based on population MINDD0 and using a function suited to skewed normal distributions, regressions were developed for predicting growth from the distance in climate space (MINDD0 ) populations had been transferred from their native location to a planting site. The regressions were skewed, showing that the ecological optimum of most populations is colder than the physiological optimum and that the discrepancy between the two increases as the ecological optimum becomes colder. Response to climate change is dependent on innate growth potential and the discrepancy between the two optima and, therefore, is population-specific, developing out of genotype-environment interactions. Response to warming in the short-term can be either positive or negative, but long term responses will be negative for all populations, with the timing of the demise dependent on the amount of skew. The results pertain to physiological modeling, species distribution models, and climate-change adaptation strategies.
利用 266 个种群在 12 个共同园中 3-7 年的生长数据，评估了种群对气候的响应，这些种群是作为五个不同的 Pinus contorta var. latifolia 研究的一部分于 20 世纪 80 年代建立的。根据三个概念解释响应：生态最适，种群具有竞争力且自然存在的气候；生理最适，种群生长最好但最常被竞争排斥的气候；以及生长潜力，在生理最适条件下生长的固有能力。统计分析确定了冬季寒冷，由从每日最低温度计算得出的负度日平方根（MINDD0）衡量，是与种群生长潜力最密切相关的气候效应；一个种群所居住的冬季越冷，其生长潜力越低，这种关系可能是由自然选择塑造的。通过根据种群的 MINDD0 将数据分成组，并使用适合偏态正态分布的函数，开发了从种群在气候空间中的距离（MINDD0）预测生长的回归方程，这些种群已经从其自然栖息地转移到种植地点。回归方程是偏态的，表明大多数种群的生态最适温度比生理最适温度低，而且随着生态最适温度的降低，两者之间的差异也会增加。对气候变化的响应取决于内在的生长潜力和两个最佳值之间的差异，因此是种群特异性的，是由基因型-环境相互作用发展而来的。短期变暖的响应可能是正面的或负面的，但长期响应对所有种群都是负面的，灭绝的时间取决于偏态的程度。这些结果适用于生理建模、物种分布模型和气候变化适应策略。
