Royer-Tardif Samuel, Boisvert-Marsh Laura, Godbout Julie, Isabel Nathalie, Aubin Isabelle
Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service Great Lakes Forestry Centre Sault Sainte Marie ON Canada.
Centre d'enseignement et de recherche en foresterie de Sainte-Foy inc. (CERFO) Québec QC Canada.
Ecol Evol. 2021 Sep 2;11(19):13081-13100. doi: 10.1002/ece3.8024. eCollection 2021 Oct.
Adaptive capacity, one of the three determinants of vulnerability to climate change, is defined as the capacity of species to persist in their current location by coping with novel environmental conditions through acclimation and/or evolution. Although studies have identified indicators of adaptive capacity, few have assessed this capacity in a quantitative way that is comparable across tree species. Yet, such multispecies assessments are needed by forest management and conservation programs to refine vulnerability assessments and to guide the choice of adaptation measures. In this paper, we propose a framework to quantitatively evaluate five key components of tree adaptive capacity to climate change: individual adaptation through phenotypic plasticity, population phenotypic diversity as influenced by genetic diversity, genetic exchange within populations, genetic exchange between populations, and genetic exchange between species. For each component, we define the main mechanisms that underlie adaptive capacity and present associated metrics that can be used as indices. To illustrate the use of this framework, we evaluate the relative adaptive capacity of 26 northeastern North American tree species using values reported in the literature. Our results show adaptive capacity to be highly variable among species and between components of adaptive capacity, such that no one species ranks consistently across all components. On average, the conifer and the broadleaves and show the greatest adaptive capacity among the 26 species we documented, whereas the conifers and , and the broadleaf possess the lowest. We discuss limitations that arise when comparing adaptive capacity among species, including poor data availability and comparability issues in metrics derived from different methods or studies. The breadth of data required for such an assessment exemplifies the multidisciplinary nature of adaptive capacity and the necessity of continued cross-collaboration to better anticipate the impacts of a changing climate.
适应能力是气候变化脆弱性的三个决定因素之一，被定义为物种通过适应和/或进化应对新环境条件从而在当前位置存续的能力。尽管已有研究确定了适应能力的指标，但很少有研究以一种可在不同树种间进行比较的定量方式来评估这种能力。然而，森林管理和保护项目需要这种多物种评估来完善脆弱性评估并指导适应措施的选择。在本文中，我们提出了一个框架，用于定量评估树木对气候变化适应能力的五个关键组成部分：通过表型可塑性实现的个体适应、受遗传多样性影响的种群表型多样性、种群内的基因交换、种群间的基因交换以及物种间的基因交换。对于每个组成部分，我们定义了构成适应能力的主要机制，并给出了可作为指标的相关度量。为了说明该框架的用途，我们利用文献报道的值评估了北美东北部26种树种的相对适应能力。我们的结果表明，适应能力在物种之间以及适应能力的各个组成部分之间差异很大，以至于没有一个物种在所有组成部分中排名始终如一。平均而言，在所记录的26个物种中，针叶树 以及阔叶树 和 表现出最大的适应能力，而针叶树 和 以及阔叶树 适应能力最低。我们讨论了在比较物种间适应能力时出现的局限性，包括数据可用性差以及源自不同方法或研究的度量存在可比性问题。这种评估所需的数据广度体现了适应能力的多学科性质以及持续跨学科合作以更好地预测气候变化影响的必要性。
