Méndez Susan J
Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
Health Econ. 2018 Feb;27(2):333-356. doi: 10.1002/hec.3551. Epub 2017 Sep 4.
This paper investigates and quantifies the impact of parallel trade in markets for pharmaceuticals. The paper develops a structural model of demand and supply using data on price, sales, and the characteristics of statins in Denmark and simulates outcomes under a complete ban of parallel imports, keeping other regulatory schemes unchanged. There are two sets of key results. The first set focuses on price effects. On average, prices increase more in markets where the molecule has lost patent protection; wholesale prices for both generic and original products increase after competition from parallel importers is removed, but the final price paid by consumers (after deducting reimbursement) increases more for original products than for generics because most changes in wholesale prices are absorbed by the prevailing reimbursement rules. The second set of results reports the effects on market participants. My model takes into consideration consumers' preferences, allowing them to substitute between products. Prohibiting parallel imports induces consumers to substitute towards original products for which they have stronger preferences. In sum, banning parallel imports leads to (a) an increase in variable profits for original producers and a decrease for generic firms, (b) an increase in governmental health-care expenditures, and (c) a decrease in the welfare of Danish patients and firms.
本文研究并量化了药品市场中平行贸易的影响。本文利用丹麦他汀类药物的价格、销售及特性数据构建了一个供需结构模型，并在完全禁止平行进口且其他监管方案不变的情况下模拟了结果。有两组关键结果。第一组聚焦于价格效应。平均而言，在药品分子失去专利保护的市场中价格涨幅更大；在平行进口商的竞争被消除后，仿制药和原研产品的批发价格均上涨，但消费者支付的最终价格（扣除报销后）原研产品的涨幅高于仿制药，因为批发价格的大多数变化被现行报销规则所吸收。第二组结果报告了对市场参与者的影响。我的模型考虑了消费者偏好，允许他们在产品之间进行替代。禁止平行进口促使消费者转向他们偏好更强的原研产品。总之，禁止平行进口导致：（a）原研生产商的可变利润增加，仿制药公司的可变利润减少；（b）政府医疗保健支出增加；（c）丹麦患者和企业的福利下降。
