Natural history of pancreatic cystic lesions: A multicenter prospective observational study for evaluating the risk of pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The aim of this study is to elucidate the natural history of pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs), including branch duct-type intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (BD-IPMN), via midterm follow-up analysis of a multicenter prospective observational study (NSPINAL study).

METHODS

From July 2011 to October 2016, 881 patients with PCLs were enrolled in NSPINAL study, and 664 patients with > 12 months of follow up were analyzed. Every patient was asymptomatic, and endoscopic ultrasound was performed at the initial diagnosis to exclude high-risk individuals. Follow up included endoscopic ultrasound, computed tomography, or magnetic resonance imaging at least once a year. Serial morphological changes and the pancreatic cancer (PC) incidence, including malignant progression of PCLs, were evaluated.

RESULTS

The 664 patients (358 men) were followed for a median of 33.5 months (interquartile range 29). The cyst and main pancreatic duct sizes were 16.6 ± 9.3 and 2.3 ± 1.0 mm, respectively. Morphologically, 518 cases were multilocular, 137 were unilocular, and 9 had a honeycomb pattern; 269 cases involved multifocal lesions. Ninety-six patients (14.5%) showed worsening progression on imaging. There were two resectable and four unresectable cases of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma and three cases of malignant BD-IPMN. The 3-year risk of developing PC was 1.2%. The standardized incidence ratio for PC among PCLs was 10.0 (95% confidence interval 3.5-16.5), and the standardized incidence ratio among BD-IPMN was 16.6 (95% confidence interval 5.1-28.1). Multivariate analysis showed that development of symptoms and worsening progression were significant predictors of PC.

CONCLUSIONS

Malignant progression of PCLs, including PC development, is not uncommon. Patients with PCLs should be carefully monitored to detect pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma at early stages.