Health system implications of projected population trends for New Zealand 1978--2011.

Recent and projected demographic trends are reviewed and implications drawn for the health care system. Population per active doctor declines and both the total population and labour force age. This points to longterm change in the mix of health demands to be met, and raises socio-medical issues already the subject of public debate, for instance community versus institutional care of the elderly, ethical issues surrounding the prolongation of human life, and the cost of providing health care.