Basu Kisalaya, Gupta Anil
Microsimulation Modelling and Data Analysis Division Applied Research and Analysis Directorate Health Canada.
Cah Sociol Demogr Med. 2008 Jan-Mar;48(1):139-53.
The health care system has been under pressure for some time to keep pace with its health human resource (HHR) requirements. Future demographic trends, however, are magnifying these pressures. Because of the lengthy training period for physicians, closing the physician supply and demand gap requires time. This paper attempts to explore the future utilization of physicians in terms of full-time equivalent (FTE) in Nova Scotia to the year 2025 by four general types of medical disciplines: General Physicians, Medical Specialties, Surgical Specialties, and Diagnostic Specialties. Further, it makes projections by most responsible diagnosis, in- and out-hospital status, age and sex of the patients. The study shows that for paediatric patients, the incidence of all diseases would decline and for patients between age 15 and 54, the incidence of disease would either decline or increase marginally. Consistent with the baby boom ageing wave, the prevalence of disease would increase significantly for those above 54 years. This would result in requirements for all categories of physicians to decline for patients below age 54, in contrast with those 55 years of age and over where the demand would substantially increase. It is found that the growth in the requirements would be highest for diagnostic specialists, followed by surgical specialists, medical specialists, and the general practitioners.
一段时间以来，医疗保健系统在跟上其卫生人力资源（HHR）需求方面一直面临压力。然而，未来的人口趋势正在加剧这些压力。由于医生的培训期较长，缩小医生供需差距需要时间。本文试图按普通内科、医学专科、外科专科和诊断专科这四种医学学科类型，探讨到2025年新斯科舍省全职等效（FTE）医生的未来使用情况。此外，它还按最主要的诊断、患者的住院和出院状态、年龄和性别进行预测。研究表明，对于儿科患者，所有疾病的发病率都会下降，而对于15至54岁的患者，疾病发病率要么下降，要么略有上升。与婴儿潮一代的老龄化浪潮一致，54岁以上人群的疾病患病率将显著上升。这将导致54岁以下患者对各类医生的需求下降，而55岁及以上患者的需求将大幅增加。研究发现，需求增长最高的将是诊断专科医生，其次是外科专科医生、医学专科医生和全科医生。
