Spence Michael A, Turtle Alan J
School of Mathematics and Statistics University of Sheffield Sheffield UK.
Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield UK.
Ecol Evol. 2017 Jul 31;7(17):7058-7068. doi: 10.1002/ece3.3280. eCollection 2017 Sep.
Individual growth is an important parameter and is linked to a number of other biological processes. It is commonly modeled using the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF), which is regularly fitted to age data where the ages of the animals are not known exactly but are binned into yearly age groups, such as fish survey data. Current methods of fitting the VBGF to these data treat all the binned ages as the actual ages. We present a new VBGF model that combines data from multiple surveys and allows the actual age of an animal to be inferred. By fitting to survey data for Atlantic herring () and Atlantic cod (), we compare our model with two other ways of combining data from multiple surveys but where the ages are as reported in the survey data. We use the fitted parameters as inputs into a yield-per-recruit model to see what would happen to advice given to management. We found that each of the ways of combining the data leads to different parameter estimates for the VBGF and advice for policymakers. Our model fitted to the data better than either of the other models and also reduced the uncertainty in the parameter estimates and models used to inform management. Our model is a robust way of fitting the VBGF and can be used to combine data from multiple sources. The model is general enough to fit other growth curves for any taxon when the age of individuals is binned into groups.
个体生长是一个重要参数,并且与许多其他生物过程相关联。它通常使用冯·贝塔朗菲生长函数(VBGF)进行建模,该函数经常应用于年龄数据,这些数据中动物的年龄并非确切已知,而是被划分为逐年的年龄组,比如鱼类调查数据。当前将VBGF应用于这些数据的方法将所有分组年龄视为实际年龄。我们提出了一种新的VBGF模型,它结合了来自多个调查的数据,并能够推断出动物的实际年龄。通过对大西洋鲱鱼()和大西洋鳕鱼()的调查数据进行拟合,我们将我们的模型与另外两种结合多个调查数据的方法进行比较,但这两种方法中年龄采用调查数据所报告的数值。我们将拟合参数作为补充单位捕捞量模型的输入,以了解对管理建议会产生什么影响。我们发现,每种数据结合方式都会导致VBGF的参数估计值不同,进而给政策制定者的建议也不同。我们的模型对数据的拟合效果优于其他任何一种模型,并且还降低了用于为管理提供信息的参数估计和模型的不确定性。我们的模型是拟合VBGF的一种稳健方法,可用于结合来自多个来源的数据。该模型具有足够的通用性,当个体年龄被划分为组时,能够拟合任何分类单元的其他生长曲线。