Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06268, USA.
Sci Adv. 2017 Sep 6;3(9):e1602422. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1602422. eCollection 2017 Sep.
Climate change is a well-documented driver of both wildlife extinction and disease emergence, but the negative impacts of climate change on parasite diversity are undocumented. We compiled the most comprehensive spatially explicit data set available for parasites, projected range shifts in a changing climate, and estimated extinction rates for eight major parasite clades. On the basis of 53,133 occurrences capturing the geographic ranges of 457 parasite species, conservative model projections suggest that 5 to 10% of these species are committed to extinction by 2070 from climate-driven habitat loss alone. We find no evidence that parasites with zoonotic potential have a significantly higher potential to gain range in a changing climate, but we do find that ectoparasites (especially ticks) fare disproportionately worse than endoparasites. Accounting for host-driven coextinctions, models predict that up to 30% of parasitic worms are committed to extinction, driven by a combination of direct and indirect pressures. Despite high local extinction rates, parasite richness could still increase by an order of magnitude in some places, because species successfully tracking climate change invade temperate ecosystems and replace native species with unpredictable ecological consequences.
气候变化是野生动物灭绝和疾病出现的一个有充分记录的驱动因素，但气候变化对寄生虫多样性的负面影响尚未被记录。我们编译了寄生虫领域最全面的、具有明确空间位置的数据，预测了在气候变化下寄生虫的分布范围变化，并估算了 8 个主要寄生虫类群的灭绝率。基于捕获 457 种寄生虫物种地理分布范围的 53133 次记录，保守模型预测表明，到 2070 年，仅因气候变化导致的栖息地丧失，这些物种中就有 5%至 10%注定会灭绝。我们没有发现任何证据表明具有人畜共患潜力的寄生虫在气候变化下获得更大的分布范围的可能性更高，但我们确实发现外寄生虫（尤其是蜱）比内寄生虫的情况更为严重。考虑到宿主共同灭绝的因素，模型预测，由于直接和间接压力的结合，多达 30%的寄生蠕虫注定会灭绝。尽管本地灭绝率很高，但寄生虫丰富度在某些地方仍可能增加一个数量级，因为成功追踪气候变化的物种会入侵温带生态系统，并以不可预测的生态后果取代本地物种。
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