Ochalek Jessica, Revill Paul, van den Berg Bernard
Centre for Health Economics, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK.
Centre for Health Economics, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK.
Econ Hum Biol. 2017 Nov;27(Pt A):248-260. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2017.09.001. Epub 2017 Sep 8.
This paper estimates the causal impact of being HIV positive on individual employment status using a recursive bivariate probit with male circumcision as the instrument to overcome the endogeneity arising from simultaneity bias. The results show that being HIV positive reduces the probability of being employed by 5 percentage points among males in Uganda. The effect is greater for individuals employed in manual labor than non-manual labor. When limiting the sample to mainly individuals employed in subsistence agriculture, we find a 4 percentage point reduction in the likelihood of employment, suggesting that the effect occurs primarily through reductions in labor supply as opposed to demand. This is supported by additional analysis using univariate probit regressions to assess the association between different levels of HIV illness (as measured by CD4 cell count) and the likelihood of employment. The magnitude of the association increases as CD4 cell count decreases. Having a CD4 cell count of 200permm or below is associated with a 9 percentage point reduction in employment compared to individuals with CD4 cell counts above 200permm.
本文使用以男性包皮环切术为工具的递归双变量概率模型，估计感染艾滋病毒对个人就业状况的因果影响，以克服由同时性偏差引起的内生性问题。结果表明，在乌干达男性中，感染艾滋病毒会使就业概率降低5个百分点。体力劳动者受影响比非体力劳动者更大。当将样本主要限制为从事自给农业的个体时，我们发现就业可能性降低了4个百分点，这表明这种影响主要是通过劳动力供给减少而非需求减少产生的。使用单变量概率回归进行的额外分析评估了不同艾滋病毒疾病水平（以CD4细胞计数衡量）与就业可能性之间的关联，这支持了上述观点。随着CD4细胞计数减少，关联程度增加。与CD4细胞计数高于每立方毫米200个的个体相比，CD4细胞计数为每立方毫米200个或更低与就业减少9个百分点相关。
