Porter Lauren C, Bushway Shawn D, Tsao Hui-Shien, Smith Herbert L
Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland.
Rockefeller College of Public Affairs and Policy, The University at Albany, SUNY.
Criminology. 2016 Feb;54(1):30-55. doi: 10.1111/1745-9125.12094. Epub 2016 Jan 8.
This article provides a demographic exposition of the changes in the U.S prison population during the period of mass incarceration that began in the late twentieth century. By drawing on data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities (1974-2004) for inmates 17-72 years of age ( = 336), we show that the age distribution shifted upward dramatically: Only 16 percent of the state prison population was 40 years old or older in 1974; by 2004, this percentage had doubled to 33 percent with the median age of prisoners rising from 27 to 34 years old. By using an estimable function approach, we find that the change in the age distribution of the prison population is primarily a cohort effect that is driven by the "enhanced" penal careers of the cohorts who hit young adulthood-the prime age of both crime and incarceration-when substance use was at its peak. Period-specific factors (e.g., proclivity for punishment and incidence of offense) do matter, but they seem to play out more across the life cycles of persons most affected in young adulthood (cohort effects) than across all age groups at one point in time (period effects).
本文阐述了自二十世纪末开始的大规模监禁时期美国监狱人口的变化情况。通过利用州惩教设施在押人员调查(1974 - 2004年)中17至72岁在押人员((n = 336))的数据,我们发现年龄分布显著上移:1974年,州监狱人口中40岁及以上的仅占16%;到2004年,这一比例翻了一番,达到33%,囚犯的年龄中位数从27岁升至34岁。通过使用可估计函数方法,我们发现监狱人口年龄分布的变化主要是一种队列效应,这是由那些在年轻时(犯罪和监禁的黄金年龄)进入成年期的队列的“强化”刑罚生涯所驱动的,当时药物使用正处于高峰期。特定时期因素(如惩罚倾向和犯罪发生率)确实有影响,但它们似乎在受影响最大的年轻成年人群体的生命周期中(队列效应)比在某一时刻的所有年龄组中(时期效应)表现得更为明显。