Páez D J, Giles J, McCallum H, Field H, Jordan D, Peel A J, Plowright R K
Department of Microbiology and Immunology,Montana State University,Bozeman,USA.
Griffith School of Environment,Griffith University,Queensland,Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2017 Nov;145(15):3143-3153. doi: 10.1017/S0950268817002138. Epub 2017 Sep 25.
Understanding infection dynamics in animal hosts is fundamental to managing spillover and emergence of zoonotic infections. Hendra virus is endemic in Australian pteropodid bat populations and can be lethal to horses and humans. However, we know little about the factors driving Hendra virus prevalence in resevoir bat populations, making spillover difficult to predict. We use Hendra virus prevalence data collected from 13 000 pooled bat urine samples across space and time to determine if pulses of prevalence are periodic and synchronized across sites. We also test whether site-specific precipitation and temperature affect the amplitude of the largest annual prevalence pulses. We found little evidence for a periodic signal in Hendra virus prevalence. Although the largest amplitude pulses tended to occur over winter, pulses could also occur in other seasons. We found that Hendra virus prevalence was weakly synchronized across sites over short distances, suggesting that prevalence is driven by local-scale effects. Finally, we found that drier conditions in previous seasons and the abundance of Pteropus alecto were positively correlated with the peak annual values of Hendra virus prevalence. Our results suggest that in addition to seasonal effects, bat density and local climatic conditions interact to drive Hendra virus infection dynamics.
了解动物宿主中的感染动态对于控制人畜共患病感染的溢出和出现至关重要。亨德拉病毒在澳大利亚翼手目蝙蝠种群中呈地方性流行,可导致马匹和人类死亡。然而,我们对驱动亨德拉病毒在宿主蝙蝠种群中流行的因素知之甚少,这使得溢出难以预测。我们使用从13000份跨时空采集的蝙蝠尿液混合样本中收集的亨德拉病毒流行数据,来确定流行脉冲是否具有周期性以及各地点之间是否同步。我们还测试特定地点的降水和温度是否会影响年度最大流行脉冲的幅度。我们几乎没有发现亨德拉病毒流行存在周期性信号的证据。尽管最大幅度的脉冲往往发生在冬季,但其他季节也可能出现。我们发现,亨德拉病毒的流行在短距离内各地点之间存在微弱同步,这表明流行是由局部尺度效应驱动的。最后,我们发现前几个季节较干燥的条件和黑首狐蝠的数量与亨德拉病毒流行的年度峰值呈正相关。我们的结果表明,除了季节效应外,蝙蝠密度和当地气候条件相互作用,共同驱动亨德拉病毒的感染动态。