Davis D L, Schwartz J
National Research Council, Washington, DC.
Lancet. 1988 Mar 19;1(8586):633-6. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(88)91426-2.
From 1968 to 1983, age-specific cancer mortality for all cancers fell by 2.1% annually for men and women aged 35-44 and rose by 1.1% annually for men and 0.3% for women aged 75-84. In the 75-84 age group brain cancer mortality rose by 8% annually and multiple myeloma by 2.75%. Lung cancer mortality rose in men and women aged 45-84 (by 8.2% annually in 65-74 year-old women) but fell by over 3% annually in men aged 35-44. Stomach cancer declined by 4% annually in 75-84 year-olds and about 3% annually in 55-74 year-olds. These trends do not support the hypothesis that recent increases in specific cancers in the elderly chiefly reflect improved diagnosis of cases that would formerly have been misrepresented or miscoded.
1968年至1983年期间，35至44岁男性和女性的所有癌症年龄别死亡率每年下降2.1%，而75至84岁男性的该死亡率每年上升1.1%，女性则每年上升0.3%。在75至84岁年龄组中，脑癌死亡率每年上升8%，多发性骨髓瘤死亡率每年上升2.75%。45至84岁男性和女性的肺癌死亡率上升（65至74岁女性每年上升8.2%），但35至44岁男性的肺癌死亡率每年下降超过3%。75至84岁人群的胃癌死亡率每年下降4%，55至74岁人群每年下降约3%。这些趋势并不支持以下假设：即老年人近期特定癌症发病率的上升主要反映了以前被误报或错误编码病例的诊断得到改善。
