过去35年巴西不同地区女性凶杀案:年龄-时期-出生队列效应分析
Homicides among women in the different Brazilian regions in the last 35 years: an analysis of age-period-birth cohort effects.
作者信息
Souza Edinilsa Ramos de, Meira Karina Cardoso, Ribeiro Adalgisa Peixoto, Santos Juliano Dos, Guimarães Raphael Mendonça, Borges Laiane Felix, Oliveira Lannuzya Veríssimo E, Simões Taynãna César
机构信息
Departamento de Estudos sobre Violência e Saúde Jorge Careli/Claves, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Fiocruz. Av. Brasil 4036/7º, Manguinhos. 21040-210 Rio de Janeiro RJ Brasil.
Escola de Saúde, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte. Natal RN Brasil.
出版信息
Cien Saude Colet. 2017 Sep;22(9):2949-2962. doi: 10.1590/1413-81232017229.12392017.
The aim of this study is to estimate the effects of age-period-birth cohort (APC) on female homicides. This is an ecological study which analyzed the violence-related death records of women aged 10 years and older, in the Brazilian geographic regions, between 1980 and 2014. Data on mortality were extracted from the Mortality Information System. The trend analysis was conducted using negative binomial regression and APC effects were analyzed using estimable functions. The average mortality rate for the period was 5.13 deaths per 100,000 women, with the highest rates observed in the Central-West (7.98 deaths), followed by the Southeast (4.78 deaths), North (4.77 deaths), Northeast (4.05 deaths) and South (3.82 deaths) regions. All regions presented a decrease in the risk of death in the period from 2010 to 2014, except for the Northeast region (RR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.10). There was a progressive increase in the homicide risk for women born from 1955 to 1959 in all Brazilian regions. Younger women are at higher risk of dying from homicides in all Brazilian geographic regions. The upward trend of homicide mortality rates according to birth cohort was significant and the highest risk was observed in women born between 2000 and 2004.
本研究旨在评估年龄-时期-出生队列(APC)对女性凶杀案的影响。这是一项生态学研究,分析了1980年至2014年间巴西各地理区域10岁及以上女性与暴力相关的死亡记录。死亡率数据从死亡信息系统中提取。趋势分析采用负二项回归进行,APC效应使用可估计函数进行分析。该时期的平均死亡率为每10万名女性中有5.13人死亡,中西部地区的死亡率最高(7.98人死亡),其次是东南部(4.78人死亡)、北部(4.77人死亡)、东北部(4.05人死亡)和南部(3.82人死亡)地区。除东北部地区外(RR = 1.06,95%可信区间为1.02至1.10),所有地区在2010年至2014年期间的死亡风险均有所下降。1955年至1959年出生的巴西各地区女性凶杀风险呈逐步上升趋势。在巴西所有地理区域,年轻女性死于凶杀案的风险更高。按出生队列划分的凶杀死亡率上升趋势显著,2000年至2004年出生的女性风险最高。