da Silva Natal Santos, Undurraga Eduardo A, da Silva Ferreira Elis Regina, Estofolete Cássia Fernanda, Nogueira Maurício Lacerda
Faculdade de Medicina, União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos, Rua Dr. Eduardo Nielsem, 960 Jardim Novo Aeroporto, 15030-070, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil; Laboratório de Modelagens Matemática e Estatística em Medicina, Faculdade de Medicina, União das Faculdades dos Grandes Lagos, Rua Dr. Eduardo Nielsem, 960 Jardim Novo Aeroporto, 15030-070, São José do Rio Preto, São Paulo, Brazil; Laboratório de Pesquisa em Virologia, Faculdade de Medicina de São José do Rio Preto, Brigadeiro Faria Lima Avenue, 5416. Vila São Pedro, 15090-000, São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil.
Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Región Metropolitana, Chile; Escuela de Gobierno, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Vicuña Mackenna 4860, Macul CP 7820436, Región Metropolitana, Chile.
Acta Trop. 2018 Jan;177:25-31. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2017.09.025. Epub 2017 Sep 28.
In Brazil, the incidence of hospitalization due to dengue, as an indicator of severity, has drastically increased since 1998. The objective of our study was to identify risk factors associated with subsequent hospitalization related to dengue. We analyzed 7613 dengue confirmed via serology (ELISA), non-structural protein 1, or polymerase chain reaction amplification. We used a hierarchical framework to generate a multivariate logistic regression based on a variety of risk variables. This was followed by multiple statistical analyses to assess hierarchical model accuracy, variance, goodness of fit, and whether or not this model reliably represented the population. The final model, which included age, sex, ethnicity, previous dengue infection, hemorrhagic manifestations, plasma leakage, and organ failure, showed that all measured parameters, with the exception of previous dengue, were statistically significant. The presence of organ failure was associated with the highest risk of subsequent dengue hospitalization (OR=5·75; CI=3·53-9·37). Therefore, plasma leakage and organ failure were the main indicators of hospitalization due to dengue, although other variables of minor importance should also be considered to refer dengue patients to hospital treatment, which may lead to a reduction in avoidable deaths as well as costs related to dengue.