Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK.
Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH, UK.
Math Biosci. 2017 Dec;294:92-99. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2017.09.007. Epub 2017 Sep 28.
This paper investigates the effects of vaccination on the dynamics of infectious disease, which is spreading in a population concurrently with awareness. The model considers contributions to the overall awareness from a global information campaign, direct contacts between unaware and aware individuals, and reported cases of infection. It is assumed that there is some time delay between individuals becoming aware and modifying their behaviour. Vaccination is administered to newborns, as well as to aware individuals, and it is further assumed that vaccine-induced immunity may wane with time. Feasibility and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria are studied analytically, and conditions for the Hopf bifurcation of the endemic steady state are found in terms of system parameters and the time delay. Analytical results are supported by numerical continuation of the Hopf bifurcation and numerical simulations of the model to illustrate different types of dynamical behaviour.
本文研究了疫苗接种对传染病动力学的影响,该传染病在人群中与意识同时传播。该模型考虑了全球信息运动对整体意识的贡献、未感染者和感染者之间的直接接触以及感染病例的报告。假设个体意识到并改变行为之间存在一定的时间延迟。疫苗接种既针对新生儿,也针对有感知的个体,并且假设疫苗诱导的免疫力可能会随时间减弱。从分析上研究了无病和地方病平衡点的可行性和稳定性,并根据系统参数和时间延迟找到了地方病平衡点的Hopf 分岔条件。Hopf 分岔的数值延续和模型的数值模拟支持了分析结果,以说明不同类型的动态行为。