BACKGROUND

Post-stroke depression (PSD) is a frequent complication that worsens rehabilitation outcomes and patient quality of life. This study developed a risk prediction model for PSD based on patient clinical and socio-psychology features for the early detection of high risk PSD patients.

RESULTS

Risk predictors included a history of brain cerebral infarction (odds ratio [OR], 3.84; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.22-6.70; < 0.0001) and four socio-psychological factors including Eysenck Personality Questionnaire with Neuroticism/Stability (OR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.12-1.20; < 0.0001), life event scale (OR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99; = 0.0007), 20 items Toronto Alexithymia Scale (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10; = 0.002) and Social Support Rating Scale (OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.90; < 0.001) in the logistic model. In addition, 11 rules were generated in the tree model. The areas under the curve of the ROC and the accuracy for the tree model were 0.85 and 0.86, respectively.

METHODS

This study recruited 562 stroke patients in China who were assessed for demographic data, medical history, vascular risk factors, functional status post-stroke, and socio-psychological factors. Multivariate backward logistic regression was used to extract risk factors for depression in 1-month after stroke. We converted the logistic model to a visible tree model using the decision tree method. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the model.

CONCLUSION

This study provided an effective risk model for PSD and indicated that the socio-psychological factors were important risk factors of PSD.