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2016年6月23日中国阜宁龙卷风的公共卫生风险评估与影响:一项回顾性分析

Assessment of the Public Health Risks and Impact of a Tornado in Funing, China, 23 June 2016: A Retrospective Analysis.

作者信息

Wang Kaiwen, Zhong Shuang, Wang Xiaoye, Wang Zhe, Yang Lianping, Wang Qiong, Wang Suhan, Sheng Rongrong, Ma Rui, Lin Shao, Liu Wenyu, Zu Rongqiang, Huang Cunrui

机构信息

School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, No. 74, 2nd Yat-Sen Road, Yuexiu District, Guangzhou 510080, China.

School of Government, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2017 Oct 10;14(10):1201. doi: 10.3390/ijerph14101201.

Abstract

(1) Background: Tornadoes are one of the deadliest disasters but their health impacts in China are poorly investigated. This study aimed to assess the public health risks and impact of an EF-4 tornado outbreak in Funing, China; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis on the characteristics of tornado-related deaths and injuries was conducted based on the database from the Funing's Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and Funing People's Hospital. A change-point time-series analysis of weekly incidence for the period January 2010 to September 2016 was used to identify sensitive infectious diseases to the tornado; (3) Results: The 75 to 84 years old group was at the highest risk of both death (RR = 82.16; 95% CIs = 19.66, 343.33) and injury (RR = 31.80; 95% CI = 17.26, 58.61), and females were at 53% higher risk of death than males (RR = 1.53; 95% CIs = 1.02, 2.29). Of the 337 injuries, 274 injuries (81%) were minor. Most deaths occurred indoors (87%) and the head (74%) was the most frequent site of trauma during the tornado. Five diseases showed downward change-points; (4) Conclusions: The experience of the Funing tornado underscores the relative danger of being indoors during a tornado and is successful in avoiding epidemics post-tornado. Current international safety guidelines need modification when generalized to China.

摘要

(1) 背景:龙卷风是最致命的灾害之一,但在中国其对健康的影响鲜有研究。本研究旨在评估中国阜宁一次EF - 4级龙卷风爆发对公众健康的风险及影响;(2) 方法:基于阜宁疾病预防控制中心(CDC)和阜宁人民医院的数据库,对与龙卷风相关的死亡和受伤特征进行回顾性分析。采用2010年1月至2016年9月期间每周发病率的变点时间序列分析,以确定对龙卷风敏感的传染病;(3) 结果:75至84岁年龄组死亡风险(RR = 82.16;95%置信区间 = 19.66,343.33)和受伤风险(RR = 31.80;95%置信区间 = 17.26,58.61)最高,女性死亡风险比男性高53%(RR = 1.53;95%置信区间 = 1.02,2.29)。在337例受伤中,274例(81%)为轻伤。大多数死亡发生在室内(87%),龙卷风中头部(74%)是最常见的创伤部位。五种疾病出现下降变点;(4) 结论:阜宁龙卷风事件凸显了龙卷风中身处室内的相对危险性,并成功避免了龙卷风后疫情的发生。当前国际安全指南推广至中国时需要修订。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/f1fd/5664702/8589b6ad2eff/ijerph-14-01201-g001.jpg

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