一项比较三种德尔菲反馈策略的随机试验在初始一致性较高的环境中未发现差异的证据。
A randomized trial comparing three Delphi feedback strategies found no evidence of a difference in a setting with high initial agreement.
机构信息
Academic Urology Unit, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
Department of Biostatistics, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
出版信息
J Clin Epidemiol. 2018 Jan;93:1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2017.09.024. Epub 2017 Oct 7.
OBJECTIVES
The objective of the study was to explore the impact of different feedback strategies on (1) subsequent agreement and (2) variability in Delphi studies.
STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING
A two-round Delphi survey, with a list of outcomes generated from the results of a systematic review and interviews, was undertaken while developing a core outcomes set for prostate cancer including two stakeholder groups (health professionals and patients). Seventy-nine outcomes were scored on a scale of one (not important) to nine (critically important). Participants were randomized in round 2 to receive round 1 feedback from peers only, multiple stakeholders separately, or multiple stakeholders combined.
RESULTS
Agreement on outcomes retained for all feedback groups was high (peer: 92%, multiple separate: 90%, multiple combined: 84%). There were no statistically significant reduction in variability for peer vs. multiple separate (0.016 [-0.035, 0.067]; P = 0.529), or multiple separate vs. multiple combined feedback (0.063 [-0.003, 0.129]; P = 0.062). Peer feedback statistically significantly reduced variability compared with multiple combined feedback (0.079 [0.001, 0.157]; P = 0.046).
CONCLUSIONS
We found no evidence of a difference between different feedback strategies in terms of the number of outcomes retained or reduction in variability of opinion. However, this may be explained by the high level of existing agreement in round 1. Further methodological studies nested within Delphi surveys will help clarify the best strategy.
目的
本研究旨在探讨不同反馈策略对(1)德尔菲研究后续达成一致意见和(2)意见变异性的影响。
研究设计和设置
在制定前列腺癌核心结局集的过程中,开展了一项两轮德尔菲调查,该结局集是从系统评价和访谈的结果中生成的,涉及两个利益相关者群体(卫生专业人员和患者)。79 项结局的评分范围为 1(不重要)至 9(至关重要)。在第二轮中,参与者被随机分配,分别接受来自同行、多个利益相关者或多个利益相关者组合的第一轮反馈。
结果
所有反馈组对保留的结局达成高度一致(同行:92%,多个单独:90%,多个组合:84%)。与多个单独反馈组相比,同行反馈组和多个组合反馈组的变异性均无统计学显著降低(0.016[-0.035,0.067];P=0.529),或多个单独反馈组和多个组合反馈组(0.063[-0.003,0.129];P=0.062)。与多个组合反馈组相比,同行反馈组的变异性统计学显著降低(0.079[0.001,0.157];P=0.046)。
结论
我们没有发现不同反馈策略在保留的结局数量或意见变异性降低方面存在差异的证据。然而,这可能是由于第一轮中已经存在高度一致意见所导致的。进一步在德尔菲调查中嵌套的方法学研究将有助于阐明最佳策略。