Margerison-Zilko Claire E, Li Yu, Luo Zhehui
Am J Epidemiol. 2017 Nov 15;186(10):1131-1139. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwx179.
We know little about the relationship between the macroeconomy and birth outcomes, in part due to the methodological challenge of distinguishing effects of economic conditions on fetal health from effects of economic conditions on selection into live birth. We examined associations between state-level unemployment rates in the first 2 trimesters of pregnancy and adverse birth outcomes, using natality data on singleton live births in the United States during 1990-2013. We used fixed-effect logistic regression models and accounted for selection by adjusting for state-level unemployment before conception and maternal characteristics associated with both selection and birth outcomes. We also tested whether associations between macroeconomic conditions and birth outcomes differed during and after (compared with before) the Great Recession (2007-2009). Each 1-percentage-point increase in the first-trimester unemployment rate was associated with a 5% increase in odds of preterm birth, while second-trimester unemployment was associated with a 3% decrease in preterm birth odds. During the Great Recession, however, first-trimester unemployment was associated with a 16% increase in odds of preterm birth. These findings increase our understanding of the effects of the Great Recession on health and add to growing literature suggesting that macro-level social and economic factors contribute to perinatal health.
我们对宏观经济与出生结局之间的关系了解甚少,部分原因在于难以区分经济状况对胎儿健康的影响与经济状况对活产选择的影响这一方法学挑战。我们利用1990 - 2013年美国单胎活产的出生数据,研究了怀孕前两孕期州级失业率与不良出生结局之间的关联。我们使用固定效应逻辑回归模型,并通过调整受孕前的州级失业率以及与选择和出生结局相关的母亲特征来考虑选择因素。我们还测试了大衰退(2007 - 2009年)期间及之后(与之前相比)宏观经济状况与出生结局之间的关联是否存在差异。孕早期失业率每增加1个百分点,早产几率增加5%,而孕中期失业率与早产几率降低3%相关。然而,在大衰退期间,孕早期失业与早产几率增加16%相关。这些发现增进了我们对大衰退对健康影响的理解,并为越来越多表明宏观层面社会和经济因素影响围产期健康的文献增添了内容。