Stránský V, Thinová L
Czech Technical University in Prague, Faculty of Nuclear Sciences and Physical Engineering, Brehová 7, Praha 11 519, Czech Republic.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2017 Nov 1;177(1-2):155-159. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncx207.
In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor.
2010年，捷克共和国在姆拉代茨洞穴使用连续氡监测仪RADIM3A建立了连续氡测量。为了对2010 - 2015年的氡时间序列进行建模，采用了计量经济学中常用的Box-Jenkins方法。由于氡浓度（RC）的行为，已选择具有外生变量的季节性整合自回归移动平均模型（SARIMAX）对测量的时间序列进行建模。该模型利用时间序列季节性、先前获取的值和延迟的大气参数来预测RC。所开发的RC时间序列模型称为regARIMA(5,1,3)。模型残差可以与RC测量期间发生的局部或全球地震的地震证据进行回顾性比较。这项技术使我们能够评估连续测量的RC是否可以作为地震前兆。
