Kley Stefanie
a University of Hamburg.
Popul Stud (Camb). 2017 Oct;71(sup1):35-49. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1359328.
Behavioural models of migration emphasize the importance of migration decision-making for the explanation of subsequent behaviour. But empirical migration research regularly finds considerable gaps between those who intend to migrate and those who actually realize their intention. This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour, enriched by the Rubicon model, to test specific hypotheses about distinct effects of facilitators and constraints on specific stages of migration decision-making and behaviour. The data come from a tailor-made panel survey based on random samples of people drawn from two German cities in 2006-07. The results show that in conventional models the effects of facilitators and constraints on migration decision-making are likely to be underestimated. Splitting the process of migration decision-making into a pre-decisional and a pre-actional phase helps to avoid bias in the estimated effects of facilitators and constraints on both migration decision-making and migration behaviour.
移民行为模型强调移民决策对于解释后续行为的重要性。但实证性移民研究经常发现，打算移民者与实际实现移民意图者之间存在相当大的差距。本文应用计划行为理论，并结合鲁比肯模型进行拓展，以检验关于促进因素和制约因素对移民决策及行为特定阶段的不同影响的具体假设。数据来自于2006 - 2007年对德国两个城市随机抽取的人群进行的定制面板调查。结果表明，在传统模型中，促进因素和制约因素对移民决策的影响可能被低估。将移民决策过程分为决策前阶段和行动前阶段，有助于避免在估计促进因素和制约因素对移民决策及移民行为的影响时出现偏差。
