Department of Psychiatry,Washington University School of Medicine,St. Louis,MO,USA.
Department of Psychology,University of Minnesota,Minneapolis,MN,USA.
Psychol Med. 2018 Jul;48(9):1494-1503. doi: 10.1017/S0033291717002999. Epub 2017 Oct 25.
Downward trends in a number of adolescent risk behaviors including violence, crime, and drug use have been observed in the USA in recent years. It is unknown whether these are separate trends or whether they might relate to a general reduction in propensity to engage in such behaviors. Our objectives were to quantify trends in substance use disorders (SUDs) and delinquent behaviors over the 2003-2014 period and to determine whether they might reflect a single trend in an Externalizing-like trait.
We analyzed data from 12 to 17 year old participants from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, a representative survey of the household dwelling population of the USA, across the 2003-2014 period (N = 210 599). Outcomes included past-year prevalence of six categories of substance use disorder and six categories of delinquent behavior.
Trend analysis suggested a net decline of 49% in mean number of SUDs and a 34% decline in delinquent behaviors over the 12-year period. Item Response Theory models were consistent with the interpretation that declines in each set of outcomes could be attributed to changes in mean levels of a latent, Externalizing-like trait.
Our findings suggest that declines in SUDs and some delinquent behaviors reflect a single trend related to an Externalizing-like trait. Identifying the factors contributing to this trend may facilitate continued improvement across a spectrum of adolescent risk behaviors.
近年来，美国观察到一些青少年风险行为（包括暴力、犯罪和药物使用）呈下降趋势。目前尚不清楚这些趋势是独立的还是可能与参与此类行为的倾向普遍降低有关。我们的目的是量化 2003-2014 年期间物质使用障碍（SUD）和不良行为的趋势，并确定它们是否可能反映出一种类似于外显特质的单一趋势。
我们分析了 2003-2014 年期间来自美国全国毒品使用与健康调查（一项针对美国家庭居住人口的代表性调查）的 12 至 17 岁参与者的数据（N=210599）。结果包括过去一年六种物质使用障碍和六种不良行为的流行率。
趋势分析表明，在 12 年期间，平均物质使用障碍数量下降了 49%，不良行为下降了 34%。项目反应理论模型与以下解释一致，即每一组结果的下降都可以归因于潜在外显特质的平均水平变化。
我们的发现表明，SUD 和一些不良行为的下降反映了与外显特质相关的单一趋势。确定促成这一趋势的因素可能有助于继续改善一系列青少年风险行为。
