Podolská Kateřina
Department of Demography and Geodemography, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Atmospheric Physics CAS, Department of Upper Atmosphere, Prague, Czech Republic.
J Stroke Cerebrovasc Dis. 2018 Feb;27(2):404-417. doi: 10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2017.09.017. Epub 2017 Oct 23.
We investigate the impact of solar activity changes on mortality from cardiovascular causes of death in the period 1994-2011 in the Czech Republic. This period coincides with the time of solar cycle no. 23 and the surrounding minima when there was an unusually low level of solar activity. We use long-period daily time series of numbers of deaths by cause, solar activity indices (the relative sunspot number, and the intensity of solar radio flux), geomagnetic indices (Kp-the planetary index that indicates the fluctuation rate of horizontal components of the geomagnetic field, the Auroral Electrojet, and the disturbance storm time), and physical parameters describing the ionospheric effects (the critical frequency of the ionospheric F2 layer and the content of free electrons in the ionosphere). The results of the analysis confirm the hypothesis that there is no direct correlation between the geomagnetic solar index, Kp, and the number of deaths from acute myocardial infarction (code I21) or brain stroke (code I64) during the maxima of the solar cycle. On the other hand, the ionospheric parameters explain a greater part of the variability in the number of deaths for acute myocardial infarction or brain stroke than the model with solar parameters. The analysis shows that, because the values are geographically specific, the ionospheric parameters may describe the variability in the number of deaths from cardiovascular causes better than the solar indices. The cardiovascular diseases thus respond to the changes in the solar activity and to abnormal solar events indirectly through a concentration of electrical charges in the earth's environment.
我们研究了1994年至2011年期间太阳活动变化对捷克共和国心血管疾病死亡人数的影响。这一时期恰逢第23个太阳活动周期及其周围的极小期，当时太阳活动水平异常低。我们使用了按病因划分的死亡人数的长期每日时间序列、太阳活动指数（相对太阳黑子数和太阳射电流量强度）、地磁指数（Kp——表示地磁场水平分量波动速率的行星指数、极光电集流和扰动风暴时间）以及描述电离层效应的物理参数（电离层F2层的临界频率和电离层中的自由电子含量）。分析结果证实了以下假设：在太阳活动周期的最大值期间，地磁太阳指数Kp与急性心肌梗死（代码I21）或中风（代码I64）的死亡人数之间没有直接关联。另一方面，与包含太阳参数的模型相比，电离层参数能解释急性心肌梗死或中风死亡人数变异性的更大一部分。分析表明，由于这些值具有地理特异性，电离层参数可能比太阳指数能更好地描述心血管疾病死亡人数的变异性。因此，心血管疾病通过地球环境中电荷的聚集，间接对太阳活动变化和异常太阳事件做出反应。
