University Pierre & Marie Curie, LOCEAN, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005, Paris, France.
Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bussestrasse 24, 27570, Bremerhaven, Germany.
Ambio. 2017 Dec;46(Suppl 3):355-367. doi: 10.1007/s13280-017-0951-5.
The ability to forecast sea ice (both extent and thickness) and weather conditions are the major factors when it comes to safe marine transportation in the Arctic Ocean. This paper presents findings focusing on sea ice and weather prediction in the Arctic Ocean for navigation purposes, in particular along the Northeast Passage. Based on comparison with the observed sea ice concentrations for validation, the best performing Earth system models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) program (CMIP5-Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) were selected to provide ranges of potential future sea ice conditions. Our results showed that, despite a general tendency toward less sea ice cover in summer, internal variability will still be large and shipping along the Northeast Passage might still be hampered by sea ice blocking narrow passages. This will make sea ice forecasts on shorter time and space scales and Arctic weather prediction even more important.
预测海冰（范围和厚度）和天气条件的能力是北极海洋安全海上运输的主要因素。本文主要针对北极海洋的海冰和天气预测，特别是针对东北航道的航海目的，提出了一些研究结果。通过与观测到的海冰浓度进行比较，以验证结果，我们选择了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）计划（CMIP5-耦合模型比较计划第五阶段）中表现最好的地球系统模型，以提供未来潜在海冰条件的范围。我们的研究结果表明，尽管夏季海冰覆盖范围总体呈减少趋势，但内部变率仍将很大，东北航道的航运仍可能因海冰阻塞狭窄通道而受阻。这将使短期和空间尺度的海冰预报以及北极天气预报变得更加重要。
