气候变化研究与评估的新一代情景。
The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.
机构信息
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory/University of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
出版信息
Nature. 2010 Feb 11;463(7282):747-56. doi: 10.1038/nature08823.
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
气候变化科学和观测的进展,使我们更清楚地了解地球气候系统的固有变异性及其可能对人类和自然影响的反应。气候变化对环境和社会的影响不仅取决于地球系统对辐射强迫变化的反应,还取决于人类通过技术、经济、生活方式和政策的变化做出何种反应。未来气候变化的强迫因素和响应存在广泛的不确定性,因此需要使用未来情景来探索不同响应选项的潜在后果。迄今为止,这些情景尚未充分考虑到气候变化缓解和适应等关键可能性,而且依赖于减缓物理、生物和社会科学家之间信息交流的研究进程。在这里,我们描述了一个新的创建合理情景的过程,以研究全球社会面临的一些关于气候变化的最具挑战性和重要的问题。