Perez-Saez Javier, King Aaron A, Rinaldo Andrea, Yunus Mohammad, Faruque Abu S G, Pascual Mercedes
Laboratory of Ecohydrology, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015, Switzerland.
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
Adv Water Resour. 2017 Oct;108:367-376. doi: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2016.11.013. Epub 2016 Nov 27.
Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.
尽管在孟加拉国达卡这个空间异质性的大城市中，已报告霍乱动态对气候变化具有差异敏感性，但由此产生的风险在城市内部的具体传播模式仍不明确。我们基于一个已建立的概率空间模型，来研究人口流动在调节霍乱空间传播中的重要性和作用。流动通量是使用一种直接且可推广的方法推断出来的，该方法依赖于基于高分辨率城市足迹产品绘制人口密度图，以及一个无参数的人口流动模型。与先前的研究结果一致，我们强调人口密集的城市中心比农村周边地区对厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）更为敏感。更重要的是，我们的结果表明，霍乱风险在很大程度上是从对气候敏感的核心区域传播到城市周边地区，这对控制措施的规划具有启示意义。此外，纳入人口流动因素可提前11个月提高模型对疫情爆发的预测性能。从发展中世界大城市快速增长的角度，讨论了气候和人口流动因素在霍乱传播中的相互作用。
