Pascual M, Rodó X, Ellner S P, Colwell R, Bouma M J
Center of Marine Biotechnology, University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute, 701 East Pratt Street, Suite 236, Columbus Center, Baltimore, MD 21202, USA.
Science. 2000 Sep 8;289(5485):1766-9. doi: 10.1126/science.289.5485.1766.
Analysis of a monthly 18-year cholera time series from Bangladesh shows that the temporal variability of cholera exhibits an interannual component at the dominant frequency of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Results from nonlinear time series analysis support a role for both ENSO and previous disease levels in the dynamics of cholera. Cholera patterns are linked to the previously described changes in the atmospheric circulation of south Asia and, consistent with these changes, to regional temperature anomalies.
对来自孟加拉国的长达18年的霍乱月度时间序列分析表明，霍乱的时间变异性在厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）的主导频率上呈现出年际分量。非线性时间序列分析结果支持ENSO和先前疾病水平在霍乱动态变化中均发挥作用。霍乱模式与先前描述的南亚大气环流变化有关，并且与这些变化一致，还与区域温度异常有关。
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