Department of Acute Infectious Diseases, Municipal Centre of Disease Control and Prevention of Qingdao, Qingdao Institute of Prevention Medicine, Qingdao City, Shandong Province, PR China.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Taishan Medical College, Taian City, Shandong Province, PR China.
J Infect Public Health. 2018 Jul-Aug;11(4):500-506. doi: 10.1016/j.jiph.2017.10.001.
We aimed to quantify the impact of few times floods on bacillary dysentery in Zhengzhou during 2005-2009.
The Spearman correlation test was applied first to examine the lagged effects of floods on monthly morbidity of bacillary dysentery during 2005-2009 in Zhengzhou. We further quantified the effects of 7 flood events on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery using the time-series Poisson regression controlling for climatic factors, seasonality, gender and age groups. We estimated years lived with disability (YLDs) to estimate the burden of bacillary dysentery attributed to floods among different population groups.
A total of 15,841 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in the study region over the study period. The relative risks of floods on the morbidity of bacillary dysentery and attributable YLDs among the whole study population, males, females, below 14 years old group, 15-64 years old group, and over 65 years old group were 2.80, 3.13, 2.53, 2.75, 3.03, 2.48, and 1.206, 1.513, 0.913, 3.593, 0.638, 0.880, respectively.
Our findings contribute to developing local strategies to prevent and reduce health impact of floods.
本研究旨在量化 2005-2009 年期间郑州地区几次洪水对细菌性痢疾的影响。
首先应用 Spearman 相关检验分析 2005-2009 年郑州地区洪水对细菌性痢疾月发病率的滞后效应。我们进一步采用时间序列 Poisson 回归控制气候因素、季节性、性别和年龄组，量化 7 次洪水事件对细菌性痢疾发病率的影响。我们估计失能调整生命年（YLDs），以评估不同人群中因洪水导致的细菌性痢疾负担。
在研究期间，研究区域共报告了 15841 例细菌性痢疾病例。在全人群、男性、女性、<14 岁组、15-64 岁组和>65 岁组中，洪水对细菌性痢疾发病率和归因 YLDs 的相对风险分别为 2.80、3.13、2.53、2.75、3.03、2.48 和 1.206、1.513、0.913、3.593、0.638、0.880。
本研究结果有助于制定地方策略，以预防和减少洪水对健康的影响。
