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基于乳腺 X 线摄影筛查的辐射致癌风险的数学模型。

Mathematical modelling of radiation-induced cancer risk from breast screening by mammography.

机构信息

Faculty of Medicine, University of Kufa, Iraq; University of Salford, UK.

University of Salford, UK.

出版信息

Eur J Radiol. 2017 Nov;96:98-103. doi: 10.1016/j.ejrad.2017.10.003. Epub 2017 Oct 3.

DOI:10.1016/j.ejrad.2017.10.003
PMID:29103483
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

Establish a method to determine and convey lifetime radiation risk from FFDM screening.

METHODS

Radiation risk from screening mammography was quantified using effective risk (number of radiation-induced cancer cases/million). For effective risk calculations, organ doses and examined breast MGD were used. Screening mammography was simulated by exposing a breast phantom for cranio-caudal and medio-lateral oblique for each breast using 16 FFDM machines. An ATOM phantom loaded with TLD dosimeters was positioned in contact with the breast phantom to simulate the client's body. Effective risk data were analysed using SPSS software to establish a regression model to predict the effective risk of any screening programme. Graphs were generated to extrapolate the effective risk of all screening programmes for a range of commencement ages and time intervals between screens.

RESULTS

The most important parameters controlling clients' total effective risk within breast screening are the screening commencement age and number of screens (correlation coefficients were -0.865 and 0.714, respectively). Since the tissue radio-sensitivity reduces with age, the end age of screening does not result in noteworthy effect on total effective risk.

CONCLUSIONS

The regression model can be used to predict the total effective risk for clients within breast screening but it cannot be used for exact assessment of total effective risk. Graphical representation of risk could be an easy way to represent risk in a fashion which might be helpful to clients and clinicians.

摘要

目的

建立一种方法来确定和传递来自 FFDM 筛查的终生辐射风险。

方法

使用有效风险(每百万例辐射诱发癌症病例数)来量化筛查乳房 X 光摄影的辐射风险。为了进行有效风险计算,使用器官剂量和检查的乳房 MGD。使用 16 台 FFDM 机器对每个乳房进行颅尾和中外斜向曝光,模拟筛查乳房 X 光摄影。将装有 TLD 剂量计的 ATOM 体模置于乳房体模上,以模拟客户的身体。使用 SPSS 软件分析有效风险数据,以建立预测任何筛查计划有效风险的回归模型。生成图表以推断所有筛查计划在一系列起始年龄和筛查间隔时间的有效风险。

结果

控制乳房筛查中客户总有效风险的最重要参数是筛查起始年龄和筛查次数(相关系数分别为-0.865 和 0.714)。由于组织放射性敏感性随年龄而降低,因此筛查结束年龄对总有效风险没有显著影响。

结论

回归模型可用于预测乳房筛查中客户的总有效风险,但不能用于准确评估总有效风险。风险的图形表示可能是一种以有助于客户和临床医生的方式表示风险的简单方法。

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