Foldes Consulting LLC, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis.
Gerontologist. 2018 Mar 19;58(2):e97-e106. doi: 10.1093/geront/gnx077.
The economic burden of dementia is substantially borne by state Medicaid programs. We estimated savings, from the state payer perspective, from offering the New York University Caregiver Intervention (NYUCI), a well-studied caregiver support and counseling program, to eligible Minnesota Medicaid enrollees.
A population-based microsimulation Markov model predicted and compared costs over 15 years with and without implementation of the NYUCI for family caregivers of community-based Medicaid eligibles with dementia. The model was informed by primary analysis of Minnesota Department of Human Services (MN DHS) data, and literature on the epidemiology, natural history, costs, and evidence-based management of the disease. Primary outcomes were predicted cumulative total direct costs, including medical, facility, and waiver-program payments for eligibles, and estimated costs of providing the NYUCI.
Approximately 5-6% more eligibles with dementia would remain in the community annually from year 3 (2014) on, so that over 15 years 17% fewer would die in nursing homes (NH) if their caregivers received the NYUCI. After 15 years, MN DHS could realize savings of $40.4 million (2011 dollars, discounted at 3%) if all eligibles/caregivers enrolled. Savings were expected 5 years after implementation. Multiple sensitivity analyses, including best-and worst-case scenarios, estimated results ranging from 15-year cumulative savings of $178.9 million to a cumulative loss of $7.3 million, respectively, driven largely by assumed program effectiveness.
State payers can use enhanced caregiver support to moderate the growing tax burden of dementia, even without a breakthrough in the pharmacologic treatment of the disease.
痴呆症给州医疗补助计划带来了巨大的经济负担。我们从州支付者的角度估算,如果向明尼苏达州符合医疗补助条件的人提供经过充分研究的护理人员支持和咨询计划——纽约大学护理人员干预(NYUCI),将为其节省多少费用。
基于人群的微模拟马尔可夫模型预测并比较了 15 年内实施和不实施 NYUCI 对社区内有医疗补助的痴呆症患者的家庭护理人员的成本。该模型的信息来自明尼苏达州人类服务部(MN DHS)的数据的主要分析以及有关该疾病的流行病学、自然史、成本和循证管理的文献。主要结果是预测累积的总直接成本,包括符合条件者的医疗、设施和豁免计划付款,以及提供 NYUCI 的估计成本。
从第 3 年(2014 年)开始,每年约有 5-6%的符合条件的痴呆症患者会留在社区,因此,如果他们的护理人员接受了 NYUCI,在 15 年内,17%的患者将不会在疗养院(NH)中死亡。15 年后,如果所有符合条件者/护理人员都参加,MN DHS 可以节省 4040 万美元(2011 年的美元,按 3%贴现)。预计实施 5 年后会有节省。包括最佳和最坏情况在内的多次敏感性分析估计,结果范围从 15 年累计节省 1.789 亿美元到累计损失 730 万美元不等,主要取决于假设的项目效果。
即使在痴呆症的药物治疗方面没有突破,州支付者也可以使用强化的护理人员支持来减轻不断增长的税收负担。