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青藏高原东部干湿区域径流趋势对比

Contrasting runoff trends between dry and wet parts of eastern Tibetan Plateau.

作者信息

Wang Yuanyuan, Zhang Yongqiang, Chiew Francis H S, McVicar Tim R, Zhang Lu, Li Hongxia, Qin Guanghua

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Radiometric Calibration and Validation for Environmental Satellites, China Meteorological Administration (LRCVES/CMA), and the National Satellite Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China.

CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, 2601, Australia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2017 Nov 13;7(1):15458. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-15678-x.

Abstract

As the "Asian Water Tower", the Tibetan Plateau (TP) provides water resources for more than 1.4 billion people, but suffers from climatic and environmental changes, followed by the changes in water balance components. We used state-of-the-art satellite-based products to estimate spatial and temporal variations and trends in annual precipitation, evapotranspiration and total water storage change across eastern TP, which were then used to reconstruct an annual runoff variability series for 2003-2014. The basin-scale reconstructed streamflow variability matched well with gauge observations for five large rivers. Annual runoff increased strongly in dry part because of increases in precipitation, but decreased in wet part because of decreases in precipitation, aggravated by noticeable increases in evapotranspiration in the north of wet part. Although precipitation primarily governed temporal-spatial pattern of runoff, total water storage change contributed greatly to runoff variation in regions with wide-spread permanent snow/ice or permafrost. Our study indicates that the contrasting runoff trends between the dry and wet parts of eastern TP requires a change in water security strategy, and attention should be paid to the negative water resources impacts detected for southwestern part which has undergone vast glacier retreat and decreasing precipitation.

摘要

作为“亚洲水塔”,青藏高原为超过14亿人口提供水资源,但却遭受气候和环境变化影响,进而导致水平衡各组成部分发生变化。我们利用最先进的卫星产品来估算青藏高原东部年降水量、蒸发散和总蓄水量变化的时空变化及趋势,随后利用这些数据重建了2003 - 2014年的年径流量变化序列。流域尺度上重建的径流变化与五条大河的水文站观测数据吻合良好。由于降水量增加,干旱地区的年径流量大幅增加,但湿润地区的年径流量却因降水量减少而下降,湿润地区北部蒸发散显著增加更是加剧了这种下降。虽然降水量主要控制径流的时空格局,但在广泛分布永久积雪/冰层或多年冻土的地区,总蓄水量变化对径流变化也有很大贡献。我们的研究表明,青藏高原东部干湿地区径流趋势的差异需要改变水资源安全策略,同时应关注西南部地区已出现的大规模冰川退缩和降水量减少所带来的负面水资源影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/4f18/5684371/75eb982d089f/41598_2017_15678_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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