Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Department of Neurosurgery, Nanfang Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Pediatr Res. 2018 Mar;83(3):645-654. doi: 10.1038/pr.2017.289. Epub 2017 Dec 20.
BackgroundWe aimed to develop a risk score to improve the prediction of severe obesity in pediatric craniopharyngiomas (PCs).MethodsOverall, 612 consecutive PCs were prospectively enrolled from six hospitals. Data from 404 participants were analyzed. Participants from three of the six hospitals (n=290) were used to develop a risk score. External validation of the developed risk score was conducted using the participants from the other three hospitals (n=114). Sequential logistic regression was used to develop and validate the risk score. The c statistic and a calibration plot were used to assess the discrimination and calibration of the proposed risk score.ResultsThe overall frequency of severe obesity was 16.1% (65/404). The risk score employed a scale of 0-16 and demonstrated good discriminative power, with an optimism-corrected c statistic of 0.820. Similar results were obtained from external validation, with a c statistic of 0.821. The risk score showed good calibration, with no apparent over- or under-prediction observed in the calibration plots.ConclusionsThis novel risk score is a simple tool that can help clinicians assess the risk of severe obesity in PCs, thereby helping to plan and initiate the most appropriate disease management for these patients in time.
我们旨在开发一种风险评分系统，以提高儿童颅咽管瘤（PC）严重肥胖的预测能力。
共前瞻性纳入 6 家医院的 612 例连续 PC 患者。对 404 例患者的数据进行了分析。其中 3 家医院（n=290）的患者用于开发风险评分。另外 3 家医院（n=114）的患者用于外部验证所开发的风险评分。采用序贯逻辑回归法开发和验证风险评分。采用 C 统计量和校准图评估所提出的风险评分的区分度和校准度。
整体严重肥胖发生率为 16.1%（65/404）。风险评分采用 0-16 分制，具有良好的区分能力，校正后 C 统计量为 0.820。外部验证也得到了类似的结果，校正后 C 统计量为 0.821。风险评分具有良好的校准度，校准图未见明显的过预测或欠预测。
该新型风险评分是一种简单的工具，可帮助临床医生评估 PC 患者发生严重肥胖的风险，从而有助于及时为这些患者制定并启动最合适的疾病管理计划。
