Becker N, Smith E M, Wahrendorf J
German Cancer Research Center, Institute of Epidemiology and Biometry, Heidelberg, Iowa City, IA.
Int J Cancer. 1989 Feb 15;43(2):245-9. doi: 10.1002/ijc.2910430213.
In accordance with a previous analysis of US cancer mortality, this report also indicates that cancer mortality in the FRG over the last 3 decades (1952-1985) has not shown any decline commencing in a given period and prevailing in all age groups. If present, such effects could have been interpreted as a manifestation of improvements associated with cancer treatment. The absence of such an effect, derived by using data up to 1985 and age-specific mortality rates, supports the view expressed in the US analysis that improvements in cancer treatment are unlikely to have an impact on overall cancer mortality statistics and that efforts toward prevention may be more rewarding.
根据先前对美国癌症死亡率的分析,本报告还指出,在过去三十年(1952 - 1985年)中,联邦德国的癌症死亡率在特定时期开始后并未出现下降,且在所有年龄组中均普遍如此。如果存在这种下降,那么这种影响本可被解释为癌症治疗取得进展的一种表现。利用截至1985年的数据和特定年龄死亡率得出不存在这种影响,这支持了美国分析中所表达的观点,即癌症治疗的改善不太可能对总体癌症死亡率统计产生影响,而预防方面的努力可能更有成效。