Basset Yves, Lamarre Greg P A, Ratz Tom, Segar Simon T, Decaëns Thibaud, Rougerie Rodolphe, Miller Scott E, Perez Filonila, Bobadilla Ricardo, Lopez Yacksecari, Ramirez José Alejandro, Aiello Annette, Barrios Héctor
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Ancon Panamá.
Faculty of Science University of South Bohemia Ceske Budejovice Czech Republic.
Ecol Evol. 2017 Oct 22;7(23):9991-10004. doi: 10.1002/ece3.3515. eCollection 2017 Dec.
We have little knowledge of the response of invertebrate assemblages to climate change in tropical ecosystems, and few studies have compiled long-term data on invertebrates from tropical rainforests. We provide an updated list of the 72 species of Saturniidae moths collected on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, during the period 1958-2016. This list will serve as baseline data for assessing long-term changes of saturniids on BCI in the future, as 81% of the species can be identified by their unique DNA Barcode Index Number, including four cryptic species not yet formally described. A local species pool of 60 + species breeding on BCI appears plausible, but more cryptic species may be discovered in the future. We use monitoring data obtained by light trapping to analyze recent population trends on BCI for saturniid species that were relatively common during 2009-2016, a period representing >30 saturniid generations. The abundances of 11 species, of 14 tested, could be fitted to significant time-series models. While the direction of change in abundance was uncertain for most species, two species showed a significant increase over time, and forecast models also suggested continuing increases for most species during 2017-2018, as compared to the 2009 base year. Peaks in saturniid abundance were most conspicuous during El Niño and La Niña years. In addition to a species-specific approach, we propose a reproducible functional classification based on five functional traits to analyze the responses of species sharing similar functional attributes in a fluctuating climate. Our results suggest that the abundances of larger body-size species with good dispersal abilities may increase concomitantly with rising air temperature in the future, because short-lived adults may allocate less time to increasing body temperature for flight, leaving more time available for searching for mating partners or suitable oviposition sites.
我们对热带生态系统中无脊椎动物群落对气候变化的响应知之甚少，而且很少有研究汇编过来自热带雨林的无脊椎动物的长期数据。我们提供了一份更新后的名单，列出了1958年至2016年期间在巴拿马巴罗科罗拉多岛（BCI）采集到的72种天蚕蛾科蛾类。这份名单将作为未来评估BCI上天蚕蛾科长期变化的基线数据，因为81%的物种可以通过其独特的DNA条形码索引号来识别，其中包括4个尚未正式描述的隐存物种。在BCI上有60多种或更多物种繁殖的本地物种库似乎是合理的，但未来可能会发现更多的隐存物种。我们利用灯光诱捕获得的监测数据，分析了2009年至2016年期间相对常见的天蚕蛾科物种在BCI上的近期种群趋势，这一时期代表了超过30个天蚕蛾科世代。在测试的14个物种中，有11个物种的丰度可以拟合到显著的时间序列模型。虽然大多数物种丰度变化的方向不确定，但有两个物种显示出随时间显著增加，而且预测模型还表明，与2009年基准年相比，2017年至2018年期间大多数物种仍将持续增加。天蚕蛾科丰度的峰值在厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年最为明显。除了采用针对特定物种的方法外，我们还基于五个功能性状提出了一种可重复的功能分类，以分析在气候波动中具有相似功能属性的物种的响应。我们的结果表明，未来具有良好扩散能力的较大体型物种的丰度可能会随着气温升高而增加，因为寿命较短的成虫可能会减少用于提高体温以飞行的时间，从而有更多时间用于寻找交配伙伴或合适的产卵地点。
