Yu Tongtong, Tian Chunyang, Song Jia, He Dongxu, Sun Zhijun, Sun Zhaoqing
Department of Cardiology, Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, P.R.China.
Oncotarget. 2017 Oct 11;8(60):102559-102572. doi: 10.18632/oncotarget.21741. eCollection 2017 Nov 24.
This study aimed to test the predictive performance of the updated ACTION, GRACE, and CADILLAC risk scores (RS's) for long-term mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). The study included individuals from 2 independent cohorts: derivation cohort ( = 1901) and validation cohort ( = 728). From the derivation cohort, we used Cox regression analysis to determine that the updated ACTION, GRACE, and CADILLAC RS's were associated with long-term mortality. The concordance (C) statistics of the 3 RS's were 0.682, 0.703 and 0.734, respectively. We used the validation cohort to validate the results. Moreover, the discriminatory performance of the updated ACTION RS for predicting long-term mortality in both the respective derivation and validation cohorts was similar to the discriminatory performance of the GRACE and CADILLAC RS's (ACTION vs. GRACE: = 0.684, = 0.494; ACTION vs. CADILLAC: = 1.638, = 0.101) and (ACTION vs. GRACE: = 0.460, = 0.646; ACTION vs. CADILLAC: = 0.290, = 0.772). Despite their development over a decade ago, GRACE and CADILLAC RS's maintain good performance for predicting the long-term mortality of AMI patients undergoing PCI. As a new risk model, the updated ACTION RS also predicts long-term mortality, and its discriminatory performance is similar to that of the GRACE and CADILLAC RS's.
本研究旨在测试更新后的ACTION、GRACE和CADILLAC风险评分(RS)对接受经皮冠状动脉介入治疗(PCI)的急性心肌梗死(AMI)患者长期死亡率的预测性能。该研究纳入了来自2个独立队列的个体:推导队列(n = 1901)和验证队列(n = 728)。在推导队列中,我们使用Cox回归分析确定更新后的ACTION、GRACE和CADILLAC RS与长期死亡率相关。这3种RS的一致性(C)统计量分别为0.682、0.703和0.734。我们使用验证队列来验证结果。此外,更新后的ACTION RS在各自的推导队列和验证队列中预测长期死亡率的鉴别性能与GRACE和CADILLAC RS的鉴别性能相似(ACTION与GRACE比较:P = 0.684,P = 0.494;ACTION与CADILLAC比较:P = 1.638,P = 0.101)以及(ACTION与GRACE比较:P = 0.460,P = 0.646;ACTION与CADILLAC比较:P = 0.290,P = 0.772)。尽管GRACE和CADILLAC RS是十多年前开发的,但它们在预测接受PCI的AMI患者长期死亡率方面仍保持良好性能。作为一种新的风险模型,更新后的ACTION RS也能预测长期死亡率,且其鉴别性能与GRACE和CADILLAC RS相似。