BACKGROUND: An important role for synovial pathology in the initiation and progression of knee osteoarthritis has been emphasised recently. This study aimed to examine whether ultrasonography-detected synovial changes associate with knee pain (KP) in a community population. METHODS: A case-control study was conducted to compare people with early KP (n = 298), established KP (n = 100) or no KP (n = 94) at baseline. Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) between groups adjusted for radiographic osteoarthritis (ROA) severity and other confounding factors. After 1 year, 255 participants with early and established KP completed the follow-up questionnaire for changes in KP. Logistic regression with adjustment was used to determine predictors of KP worsening. RESULTS: At baseline, effusion was associated with early KP (OR 2.64, 95% CI 1.57-4.45) and established KP (OR 5.07, 95% CI 2.74-9.38). Synovial hypertrophy was also associated with early KP (OR 5.43, 95% CI 2.12-13.92) and established KP (OR 13.27, 95% CI 4.97-35.43). The association with effusion diminished when adjusted for ROA. Power Doppler signal was uncommon (early KP 3%, established KP 2%, controls 0%). Baseline effusion predicted worsening of KP at 1 year (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.05-3.64). However, after adjusting for ROA, the prediction was insignificant (adjusted OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.44-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: Ultrasound effusion and synovial hypertrophy are associated with KP, but only effusion predicts KP worsening. However, the association/prediction is not independent from ROA. Power Doppler signal is uncommon in people with KP. Further study is needed to understand whether synovitis is directly involved in different types of KP.