epidemix-一个用于教学和可视化传染病传播的交互式多模型应用程序。
epidemix-An interactive multi-model application for teaching and visualizing infectious disease transmission.
机构信息
Epi-interactive, P.O. Box 15327, Miramar, Wellington, 6243, New Zealand.
Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group, Pathobiology and Population Sciences Department, Royal Veterinary College, Hatfield, AL9 7TA, UK.
出版信息
Epidemics. 2018 Jun;23:49-54. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2017.12.003. Epub 2017 Dec 11.
Mathematical models of disease transmission are used to improve our understanding of patterns of infection and to identify factors influencing them. During recent public and animal health crises, such as pandemic influenza, Ebola, Zika, foot-and-mouth disease, models have made important contributions in addressing policy questions, especially through the assessment of the trajectory and scale of outbreaks, and the evaluation of control interventions. However, their mathematical formulation means that they may appear as a "black box" to those without the appropriate mathematical background. This may lead to a negative perception of their utility for guiding policy, and generate expectations, which are not in line with what these models can deliver. It is therefore important for policymakers, as well as public health and animal health professionals and researchers who collaborate with modelers and use results generated by these models for policy development or research purpose, to understand the key concepts and assumptions underlying these models. The software application epidemix (http://shinyapps.rvc.ac.uk) presented here aims to make mathematical models of disease transmission accessible to a wider audience of users. By developing a visual interface for a suite of eight models, users can develop an understanding of the impact of various modelling assumptions - especially mixing patterns - on the trajectory of an epidemic and the impact of control interventions, without having to directly deal with the complexity of mathematical equations and programming languages. Models are compartmental or individual-based, deterministic or stochastic, and assume homogeneous or heterogeneous-mixing patterns (with the probability of transmission depending on the underlying structure of contact networks, or the spatial distribution of hosts). This application is intended to be used by scientists teaching mathematical modelling short courses to non-specialists - including policy makers, public and animal health professionals and students - and wishing to develop hands-on practicals illustrating key concepts of disease dynamics and control.
疾病传播的数学模型被用于增进我们对感染模式的理解,并确定影响这些模式的因素。在最近的公共卫生和动物卫生危机(如大流行性流感、埃博拉、寨卡、口蹄疫)期间,模型在解决政策问题方面做出了重要贡献,尤其是通过评估疫情的轨迹和规模,以及评估控制干预措施。然而,由于它们的数学表述方式,对于那些没有适当数学背景的人来说,这些模型可能看起来像是一个“黑匣子”。这可能导致人们对这些模型用于指导政策的实用性产生负面看法,并产生与这些模型所能提供的结果不一致的期望。因此,对于决策者,以及公共卫生和动物卫生专业人员和研究人员来说,了解这些模型所依据的关键概念和假设非常重要,他们与建模人员合作,并将这些模型的结果用于政策制定或研究目的。这里介绍的软件应用程序 epidemix(http://shinyapps.rvc.ac.uk)旨在使更多的用户能够访问疾病传播的数学模型。通过为一套 8 个模型开发一个可视化界面,用户可以在无需直接处理复杂的数学方程和编程语言的情况下,了解各种建模假设(尤其是混合模式)对疫情轨迹和控制干预措施的影响。模型可以是 compartmental 或基于个体的,确定性或随机的,并且假设是同质或异质混合模式(传播的概率取决于接触网络的基础结构或宿主的空间分布)。该应用程序旨在供教授非专业人士(包括决策者、公共和动物卫生专业人员和学生)数学建模短期课程的科学家使用,目的是开发实际操作的实践,说明疾病动力学和控制的关键概念。