Department of Plant Medicine, National Pintung University of Science and Technology, Pintung, Taiwan.
CSIRO, Agriculture & Food, Canberra, Australia.
Pest Manag Sci. 2018 Jun;74(6):1513-1523. doi: 10.1002/ps.4841. Epub 2018 Feb 13.
Understanding interactions between biocontrol agents and their pest hosts under climate change should assist implementation of biocontrol strategies, by identifying appropriate biocontrol agents for release or determining the optimal timing of releases. Species distribution models (SDMs) were applied to evaluate the distributions of Trichogramma ostriniae and its native host, Ostrinia furnacalis, in southeastern Asia, and a non-native host, Ostrinia nubilalis, in a novel range, North America, using MAXENT and CLIMEX modelling approaches.
The models led to similar predictions about the expected distribution of the two species in Asia, and emphasized likely mismatches between host and natural enemy. Trichogramma ostriniae was predicted to occur in the summer corn region of China, with distribution limits linked to its sensitivity to cold, seasonality of radiation and precipitation. The modelled Ostrinia nubilalis distribution overlapped with the main corn production areas of the northeastern USA and Canada; temporary/seasonal suitable habitat was also predicted across the southeastern USA. Climate change scenarios are predicted to favour T. ostriniae over its hosts in northeastern China and North America.
The modelling approaches used here proved useful for assessing environmental factors linked to an egg parasitoid and its lepidopteran hosts and identifying areas potentially suitable for inundative releases. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.
了解生物防治剂与其害虫宿主在气候变化下的相互作用，应有助于实施生物防治策略，通过识别适合释放的生物防治剂或确定释放的最佳时间来实现这一目标。物种分布模型（SDMs）被应用于评估东亚地区的螟黄赤眼蜂及其本地宿主烟夜蛾和新型分布地区北美地区的非本地宿主玉米螟的分布情况，使用 MAXENT 和 CLIMEX 建模方法。
这些模型对亚洲两个物种的预期分布产生了相似的预测，并强调了宿主和天敌之间可能存在的不匹配。预测螟黄赤眼蜂将在中国夏季玉米区出现，其分布范围与对寒冷的敏感性、辐射和降水的季节性有关。预测的玉米螟分布与美国东北部和加拿大的主要玉米产区重叠；也预测在美国东南部存在临时/季节性适宜栖息地。气候变化情景预计将有利于东亚和北美的螟黄赤眼蜂而不利于其宿主。
这里使用的建模方法被证明有助于评估与卵寄生蜂及其鳞翅目宿主相关的环境因素，并确定可能适合大规模释放的区域。 © 2017 化学工业协会。
